Ethereum Up or Down - November 12, 10AM ET

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Down (69%) · Down at 88¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Up13¢Down87¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 69%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$178.47

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 87.5¢

+83% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up13%

Down88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down9 traders

Total Value$547.7

Total Shares676

Combined PnL+$189.02

Up4 traders

Total Value$14.03

Total Shares90

Combined PnL-$10.55

Down — 69%Up — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 79% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100	Downavg 60.7¢	$878.2	$953.35	+$75.15	51% 1806-1756 (3562)
└ Up leg	Upavg 35.1¢	$371.79	$561.16	+$189.37
└ Down leg	Downavg 60.7¢	$506.41	$392.19	-$114.22
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$400	+$150
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$105	-$145
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$505	+$5	56% 2370-1839 (4209)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$400	+$150
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$105	-$145
38 38791873984189	Downavg 45.4¢	$170.1	$296.25	+$126.15	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
PE peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100	Upavg 49.7¢	$149.14	$146.09	-$3.05	49% 624-641 (1265)
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.7¢	$88.59	$94.39	+$5.8
└ Down leg	Downavg 55¢	$60.55	$51.7	-$8.85
PB PBot-6<$100	Downavg 45¢	$45	$79	+$34	50% 437-429 (866)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 54.8¢	$60.98	$61.08	+$0.1	48% 822-890 (1712)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 47.5¢	$18.46	$30.69	+$12.23	47% 1321-1484 (2805)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 60.3¢	$22.97	$25.93	+$2.96	60% 2389-1604 (3993)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 69.5¢	$156.3	$20.78	+$8.28	53% 1367-1231 (2598)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100	Downavg 44¢	$10.49	$18.83	+$8.34	48% 1171-1273 (2444)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 50¢	$12.5	$9.88	-$2.63	54% 1563-1340 (2903)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$11.96	$5.46	-$6.5	46% 104-120 (224)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 62¢	$5.68	$5.26	-$0.42	50% 4052-4009 (8061)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 18.9¢	$8.64	$5.03	-$3.61	49% 291-303 (594)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Upavg 27¢	$2.8	$2.7	-$0.1	47% 1583-1774 (3357)
0X 0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100	Upavg 15.5¢	$1.19	$0.84	-$0.34	—

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$878.2

Value

$953.35

PnL

+$75.15

Record

51%

1806-1756 (3562)

Both legs:

Up$371.7935.1¢+$189.37

Down$506.4160.7¢-$114.22

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$505

PnL

+$5

Record

—

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$150

Up$25050¢-$145

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$505

PnL

+$5

Record

56%

2370-1839 (4209)

Both legs:

Invested

$170.1

Value

$296.25

PnL

+$126.15

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

peepeepoopoo24ARB<$100

Invested

$149.14

Value

$146.09

PnL

-$3.05

Record

49%

624-641 (1265)

Both legs:

Invested

$45

Value

$79

PnL

+$34

Record

50%

437-429 (866)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$60.98

Value

$61.08

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

822-890 (1712)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$18.46

Value

$30.69

PnL

+$12.23

Record

47%

1321-1484 (2805)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$22.97

Value

$25.93

PnL

+$2.96

Record

60%

2389-1604 (3993)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$156.3

Value

$20.78

PnL

+$8.28

Record

53%

1367-1231 (2598)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100

Down

Invested

$10.49

Value

$18.83

PnL

+$8.34

Record

48%

1171-1273 (2444)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$12.5

Value

$9.88

PnL

-$2.63

Record

54%

1563-1340 (2903)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.96

Value

$5.46

PnL

-$6.5

Record

46%

104-120 (224)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$5.68

Value

$5.26

PnL

-$0.42

Record

50%

4052-4009 (8061)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$8.64

Value

$5.03

PnL

-$3.61

Record

49%

291-303 (594)

suntoriCTR<$100

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

47%

1583-1774 (3357)

0xe3EeB127d5763a6E4aD597f773F9d259C94d5176-1780742904507CTR<$100

Invested

$1.19

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.34

Record

—

Research grade

NeutralDown at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

11 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

79% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Down 79% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.2%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.