Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 8AM ET
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 58¢ · $916 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 75%
2 arb excluded
$916.46
-$7.11
Research grade
NeutralDown at 58%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 62.1¢ | $617 | $490.47 | -$123.48 | 51% 1054-1033 (2087) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 62.1¢ | $341.79 | $311.01 | -$30.83 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66¢ | $272.11 | $179.46 | -$92.65 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 42.1¢ | $323.57 | $380.74 | +$57.17 | 53% 938-848 (1786) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.3¢ | $127.82 | $236.55 | +$108.73 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 42.1¢ | $195.75 | $144.18 | -$51.56 | |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 55.8¢ | $26.95 | $25.84 | -$1.11 | 53% 1050-932 (1982) |
AN Anon455<$100 | Downavg 67¢ | $9.34 | $9.62 | +$0.28 | 44% 176-220 (396) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Upavg 27¢ | $5.4 | $6.2 | +$0.8 | 40% 50-75 (125) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 67.3¢ | $19.8 | $3.6 | -$7.08 | 58% 1663-1228 (2891) |
Invested
$617
Value
$490.47
PnL
-$123.48
Record
51%
1054-1033 (2087)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$323.57
Value
$380.74
PnL
+$57.17
Record
53%
938-848 (1786)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.95
Value
$25.84
PnL
-$1.11
Record
53%
1050-932 (1982)
Invested
$9.34
Value
$9.62
PnL
+$0.28
Record
44%
176-220 (396)
Invested
$5.4
Value
$6.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
40%
50-75 (125)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$7.08
Record
58%
1663-1228 (2891)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.