Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 7AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 56¢ · $709 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
1 arb excluded
$709.43
-$47.5
66.4¢ → 55.5¢
-16% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 67¢ | $500.57 | $438.43 | -$62.14 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 33.8¢ | $146.44 | $191.33 | +$44.89 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 33.8¢ | $78.31 | $114.57 | +$36.26 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 44.8¢ | $68.13 | $76.76 | +$8.63 | |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $32.31 | $33.65 | +$1.35 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $11.78 | $26.35 | +$14.57 | 40% 49-73 (122) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 58.2¢ | $14.85 | $14.67 | -$0.18 | 53% 1020-898 (1918) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $6.1 | $5 | -$1.1 | 58% 1605-1176 (2781) |
Invested
$500.57
Value
$438.43
PnL
-$62.14
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$146.44
Value
$191.33
PnL
+$44.89
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Both legs:
Invested
$32.31
Value
$33.65
PnL
+$1.35
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$11.78
Value
$26.35
PnL
+$14.57
Record
40%
49-73 (122)
Invested
$14.85
Value
$14.67
PnL
-$0.18
Record
53%
1020-898 (1918)
Invested
$6.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$1.1
Record
58%
1605-1176 (2781)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.