Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 6PM ET

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (83%) · Down at 95¢ · $683 held · ends Nov 12

Up6¢Down94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 83%

Total Value

$682.58

Combined PnL

$57.06

Smart Money Entry

67.6¢ → 94.5¢

+40% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up6%

Down95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$662.33

Total Shares685

Combined PnL+$86.36

Up1 trader

Total Value$20.25

Total Shares270

Combined PnL-$29.3

Down — 83%Up — 17%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 61.4¢	$371.35	$477.52	+$106.18	50% 1263-1254 (2517)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 87.2¢	$194.19	$171.55	-$19.03	53% 1080-957 (2037)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 18.4¢	$49.55	$20.25	-$29.3	45% 182-222 (404)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 56.2¢	$9.34	$7.98	-$1.36	53% 1206-1070 (2276)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 45¢	$2.5	$2.78	+$0.28	58% 1948-1427 (3375)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.5	+$0.3	50% 3845-3861 (7706)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$371.35

Value

$477.52

PnL

+$106.18

Record

50%

1263-1254 (2517)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$194.19

Value

$171.55

PnL

-$19.03

Record

53%

1080-957 (2037)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$49.55

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$29.3

Record

45%

182-222 (404)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$9.34

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$1.36

Record

53%

1206-1070 (2276)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$2.5

Value

$2.78

PnL

+$0.28

Record

58%

1948-1427 (3375)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.5

PnL

+$0.3

Record

50%

3845-3861 (7706)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 95%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.8%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.