Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 6AM ET
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 71¢ · $671 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
3
Down 67%
2 arb excluded
$671.23
$4.9
Research grade
NeutralDown at 71%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 63.5¢ | $593.86 | $520.82 | -$56.45 | 51% 1009-957 (1966) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 63.5¢ | $350.58 | $389 | +$37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $225.26 | $131.82 | -$93.45 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Upavg 41.6¢ | $142.92 | $85.79 | -$20.04 | 53% 908-821 (1729) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 41.6¢ | $99.37 | $54.99 | -$44.39 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 39.6¢ | $15.84 | $30.8 | +$24.35 | |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Downavg 48¢ | $28.75 | $39 | +$10.25 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 55.9¢ | $20.17 | $20.02 | -$0.15 | 53% 1020-898 (1918) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Upavg 54¢ | $10.8 | $5.6 | -$5.2 | 40% 49-73 (122) |
Invested
$593.86
Value
$520.82
PnL
-$56.45
Record
51%
1009-957 (1966)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$142.92
Value
$85.79
PnL
-$20.04
Record
53%
908-821 (1729)
Both legs:
Invested
$28.75
Value
$39
PnL
+$10.25
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$20.17
Value
$20.02
PnL
-$0.15
Record
53%
1020-898 (1918)
Invested
$10.8
Value
$5.6
PnL
-$5.2
Record
40%
49-73 (122)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.