Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 5AM ET

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Up (50%) · Up at 89¢ · $780 held · ends Nov 11

Up89¢Down11¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$780.43

Combined PnL

-$59.66

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 88.5¢

+24% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up89%

Down12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$530.41

Total Shares555

Combined PnL-$62.72

Down2 traders

Total Value$26.33

Total Shares91

Combined PnL+$3.06

Up — 50%Down — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 75.1¢	$597.95	$495.65	-$85.6	51% 978-934 (1912)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100	Downavg 29.9¢	$201.79	$223.69	+$53.28	53% 898-799 (1697)
└ Up leg	Upavg 38.4¢	$77.67	$175.18	+$112.21
└ Down leg	Downavg 29.9¢	$107.44	$48.51	-$58.93
EA Eager47259<$100	Upavg 27¢	$11.88	$34.76	+$22.88	40% 49-72 (121)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 41.5¢	$15.82	$19.24	+$3.42	53% 999-884 (1883)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 14.2¢	$7.45	$7.09	-$0.36	45% 175-218 (393)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$597.95

Value

$495.65

PnL

-$85.6

Record

51%

978-934 (1912)

Polkadot-FrogARB<$100

Down

Invested

$201.79

Value

$223.69

PnL

+$53.28

Record

53%

898-799 (1697)

Both legs:

Up$77.6738.4¢+$112.21

Down$107.4429.9¢-$58.93

Eager47259<$100

Invested

$11.88

Value

$34.76

PnL

+$22.88

Record

40%

49-72 (121)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$15.82

Value

$19.24

PnL

+$3.42

Record

53%

999-884 (1883)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$7.45

Value

$7.09

PnL

-$0.36

Record

45%

175-218 (393)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 89%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.2%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.