Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 3AM ET
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 100¢ · $810 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
6
Down 67%
$810.17
$15.66
93.8¢ → 99.5¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 95.3¢ | $323.65 | $338.65 | +$15 | 50% 917-899 (1816) |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $278.12 | $279.53 | +$1.4 | 75% 563-190 (753) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 80.5¢ | $91.66 | $91.72 | +$0.07 | 53% 851-764 (1615) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $76.84 | $78.41 | +$1.57 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $12.09 | $11.63 | -$0.46 | 42% 49-69 (118) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 59.3¢ | $12.15 | $10.24 | -$1.91 | 53% 931-840 (1771) |
Invested
$323.65
Value
$338.65
PnL
+$15
Record
50%
917-899 (1816)
BoneOhioInvested
$278.12
Value
$279.53
PnL
+$1.4
Record
75%
563-190 (753)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$91.66
Value
$91.72
PnL
+$0.07
Record
53%
851-764 (1615)
Invested
$76.84
Value
$78.41
PnL
+$1.57
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$12.09
Value
$11.63
PnL
-$0.46
Record
42%
49-69 (118)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$10.24
PnL
-$1.91
Record
53%
931-840 (1771)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.