Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 1AM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 100¢ · $567 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 80%
$566.96
-$228.91
83.7¢ → 100¢
+19% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 83.8¢ | $384.33 | $349.28 | -$35.04 | 51% 911-890 (1801) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 86.7¢ | $205.58 | $189.16 | -$16.42 | 53% 836-755 (1591) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 52.5¢ | $10.75 | $20.22 | +$9.47 | 53% 914-821 (1735) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Upavg 47¢ | $186.24 | $5.15 | -$181.09 | 48% 1171-1252 (2423) |
BY ByteBadger92<$100 | Downavg 88.6¢ | $16.33 | $3.15 | -$5.83 | 58% 1438-1036 (2474) |
Invested
$384.33
Value
$349.28
PnL
-$35.04
Record
51%
911-890 (1801)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$205.58
Value
$189.16
PnL
-$16.42
Record
53%
836-755 (1591)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$20.22
PnL
+$9.47
Record
53%
914-821 (1735)
Invested
$186.24
Value
$5.15
PnL
-$181.09
Record
48%
1171-1252 (2423)
Invested
$16.33
Value
$3.15
PnL
-$5.83
Record
58%
1438-1036 (2474)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.