Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 12PM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 100¢ · $790 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
$790
$40.98
81.5¢ → 99.8¢
+22% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUp at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Upavg 72¢ | $320.29 | $420.41 | +$100.12 | 50% 1159-1165 (2324) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Upavg 92.6¢ | $398.52 | $340 | -$58.52 | 53% 1012-899 (1911) |
EA Eager47259<$100 | Upavg 81¢ | $12.15 | $14.69 | +$2.54 | 40% 51-77 (128) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 93¢ | $18.75 | $14.5 | -$4.25 | 53% 1124-990 (2114) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Downavg 15¢ | $6.32 | $0.4 | +$1.09 | 58% 1791-1312 (3103) |
Invested
$320.29
Value
$420.41
PnL
+$100.12
Record
50%
1159-1165 (2324)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$398.52
Value
$340
PnL
-$58.52
Record
53%
1012-899 (1911)
Invested
$12.15
Value
$14.69
PnL
+$2.54
Record
40%
51-77 (128)
Invested
$18.75
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$4.25
Record
53%
1124-990 (2114)
Invested
$6.32
Value
$0.4
PnL
+$1.09
Record
58%
1791-1312 (3103)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.