Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11PM ET
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Down (75%) · Down at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Down
8
Down 75%
$1.3K
$57.39
55.2¢ → 100¢
+81% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QU QuantumPebble673CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $500 | $500 | +$0 | — |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50.6¢ | $509.4 | $500 | +$2.1 | 57% 2190-1623 (3813) |
PE peepeepoopoo24 | Downavg 69.4¢ | $83.51 | $110.95 | +$28.74 | 49% 541-568 (1109) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Downavg 55.5¢ | $76.86 | $93.75 | +$28.74 | 51% 1582-1533 (3115) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 53.3¢ | $14.46 | $22.64 | +$8.18 | 53% 1336-1174 (2510) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 74.7¢ | $35.53 | $20.66 | +$2.8 | 53% 1174-1043 (2217) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 76¢ | $17.66 | $16.32 | -$1.34 | 60% 2054-1370 (3424) |
EA Eager47259CTR<$100 | Upavg 23.7¢ | $11.85 | $0.03 | -$11.83 | 48% 93-99 (192) |
Invested
$500
Value
$500
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$509.4
Value
$500
PnL
+$2.1
Record
57%
2190-1623 (3813)
Invested
$83.51
Value
$110.95
PnL
+$28.74
Record
49%
541-568 (1109)
Invested
$76.86
Value
$93.75
PnL
+$28.74
Record
51%
1582-1533 (3115)
Invested
$14.46
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$8.18
Record
53%
1336-1174 (2510)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$35.53
Value
$20.66
PnL
+$2.8
Record
53%
1174-1043 (2217)
Invested
$17.66
Value
$16.32
PnL
-$1.34
Record
60%
2054-1370 (3424)
Invested
$11.85
Value
$0.03
PnL
-$11.83
Record
48%
93-99 (192)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.