Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 11AM ET
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Up (80%) · Up at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Up
5
Up 80%
2 arb excluded
$1.9K
$75.66
Research grade
NeutralUp at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Up. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Upavg 60.2¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$45.47 | 50% 1138-1119 (2257) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 60.2¢ | $840.92 | $873.58 | +$32.44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 45.2¢ | $456.83 | $378.93 | -$77.9 | |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 38.1¢ | $408.39 | $475.99 | +$102.79 | 53% 990-886 (1876) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.6¢ | $174.34 | $270.27 | +$108.78 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 38.1¢ | $211.7 | $205.72 | -$5.99 | |
BO bosona<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $26 | $50 | +$24 | 50% 3782-3804 (7586) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $26 | $50 | +$24 | 45% 561-685 (1246) |
AL almach<$100 | Upavg 32¢ | $22 | $50 | +$28 | 45% 555-665 (1220) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $44.45 | $46.27 | +$1.81 | 48% 1352-1466 (2818) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Downavg 44.2¢ | $16.65 | $14.5 | -$2.15 | 53% 1102-977 (2079) |
Invested
$1,303.77
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$45.47
Record
50%
1138-1119 (2257)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$408.39
Value
$475.99
PnL
+$102.79
Record
53%
990-886 (1876)
Both legs:
Invested
$26
Value
$50
PnL
+$24
Record
50%
3782-3804 (7586)
Invested
$26
Value
$50
PnL
+$24
Record
45%
561-685 (1246)
Invested
$22
Value
$50
PnL
+$28
Record
45%
555-665 (1220)
Invested
$44.45
Value
$46.27
PnL
+$1.81
Record
48%
1352-1466 (2818)
Invested
$16.65
Value
$14.5
PnL
-$2.15
Record
53%
1102-977 (2079)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.