Ethereum Up or Down - November 11, 10PM ET

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Down (67%) · Down at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

-$23.45

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down4 traders

Total Value$103.5

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$4.72

Up2 traders

Total Value$16.39

Total Shares109

Combined PnL-$28.17

Down — 67%Up — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50.5¢	$508.5	$500.4	+$3.1	57% 2190-1623 (3813)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.5¢	$252.45	$380	+$131.7
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.2¢	$246.9	$120.4	-$128.6
QU QuantumPebble673ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$500	$495	-$5	—
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$375	+$125
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$250	$120	-$130
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Downavg 74.3¢	$67.06	$64.54	-$2.52	53% 1174-1043 (2217)
PE peepeepoopoo24<$100	Downavg 73.2¢	$20.62	$23.96	+$3.34	49% 541-568 (1109)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 49.4¢	$32.8	$15.94	-$16.85	51% 1582-1533 (3115)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 51.3¢	$7.7	$11.25	+$3.55	53% 1336-1174 (2510)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 68¢	$3.4	$3.75	+$0.35	60% 2054-1370 (3424)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 27.4¢	$11.77	$0.45	-$11.32	48% 93-99 (192)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$508.5

Value

$500.4

PnL

+$3.1

Record

57%

2190-1623 (3813)

Both legs:

Down$252.4550.5¢+$131.7

Up$246.949.2¢-$128.6

QuantumPebble673ARB<$100

Invested

$500

Value

$495

PnL

-$5

Record

—

Both legs:

Invested

$67.06

Value

$64.54

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

1174-1043 (2217)

peepeepoopoo24<$100

Down

Invested

$20.62

Value

$23.96

PnL

+$3.34

Record

49%

541-568 (1109)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$32.8

Value

$15.94

PnL

-$16.85

Record

51%

1582-1533 (3115)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.7

Value

$11.25

PnL

+$3.55

Record

53%

1336-1174 (2510)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

60%

2054-1370 (3424)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$11.77

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$11.32

Record

48%

93-99 (192)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUp 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Down 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.