Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 8AM ET

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Down (80%) · Down at 99¢ · $696 held · ends Nov 10

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 80%

Total Value

$696.37

Combined PnL

$86.46

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 99.4¢

+34% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down8 traders

Total Value$680.26

Total Shares721

Combined PnL+$64.24

Up2 traders

Total Value$16.11

Total Shares454

Combined PnL+$22.22

Down — 80%Up — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 78.6¢	$223.96	$194.35	-$29.61	54% 582-503 (1085)
38 38791873984189	Downavg 48.5¢	$85.62	$160.4	+$74.78	48% 767-833 (1600)
AL almach<$100	Downavg 90.6¢	$77.05	$77.27	+$0.22	41% 282-410 (692)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 74.4¢	$65.53	$76.87	+$11.34	53% 610-548 (1158)
MO mo-money<$100	Downavg 92¢	$77.74	$76.78	-$0.96	40% 280-421 (701)
BO bosona<$100	Downavg 91.9¢	$62.97	$62.31	-$0.66	50% 3513-3548 (7061)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100	Downavg 49¢	$11.27	$20.91	+$9.64	44% 448-560 (1008)
AN Anon455CTR	Upavg 7.7¢	$220.78	$12.61	+$21.52	42% 151-207 (358)
EA Eager47259<$100	Downavg 95¢	$11.88	$11.37	-$0.51	40% 29-44 (73)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Upavg 11.7¢	$16.8	$3.5	+$0.7	57% 888-659 (1547)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$223.96

Value

$194.35

PnL

-$29.61

Record

54%

582-503 (1085)

38791873984189

Down

Invested

$85.62

Value

$160.4

PnL

+$74.78

Record

48%

767-833 (1600)

almach<$100

Down

Invested

$77.05

Value

$77.27

PnL

+$0.22

Record

41%

282-410 (692)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$65.53

Value

$76.87

PnL

+$11.34

Record

53%

610-548 (1158)

mo-money<$100

Down

Invested

$77.74

Value

$76.78

PnL

-$0.96

Record

40%

280-421 (701)

bosona<$100

Down

Invested

$62.97

Value

$62.31

PnL

-$0.66

Record

50%

3513-3548 (7061)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100

Down

Invested

$11.27

Value

$20.91

PnL

+$9.64

Record

44%

448-560 (1008)

Anon455CTR

Invested

$220.78

Value

$12.61

PnL

+$21.52

Record

42%

151-207 (358)

Eager47259<$100

Down

Invested

$11.88

Value

$11.37

PnL

-$0.51

Record

40%

29-44 (73)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Invested

$16.8

Value

$3.5

PnL

+$0.7

Record

57%

888-659 (1547)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 47%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

90% of non-arb traders are on Down. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 47% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrDown 100% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Down 90% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.