Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 6AM ET

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Up (33%) · Up at 91¢ · $953 held · ends Nov 10

Up91¢Down9¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 33%

Total Value

$953.27

Combined PnL

-$53.99

Smart Money Entry

64.5¢ → 90.5¢

+40% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up91%

Down10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up2 traders

Total Value$884.64

Total Shares886

Combined PnL-$46.01

Down4 traders

Total Value$68.63

Total Shares190

Combined PnL-$7.98

Up — 33%Down — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Upavg 69¢	$807.04	$711.96	-$74.88	53% 619-550 (1169)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 44.6¢	$143.81	$172.68	+$28.87	54% 549-476 (1025)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$39.16	$39.61	+$0.45	41% 425-614 (1039)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Downavg 33.7¢	$20.2	$17.7	-$2.5	42% 149-205 (354)
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100	Downavg 42.1¢	$12.85	$6.88	-$5.97	53% 578-516 (1094)
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100	Downavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.45	+$0.05	57% 822-611 (1433)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Invested

$807.04

Value

$711.96

PnL

-$74.88

Record

53%

619-550 (1169)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$143.81

Value

$172.68

PnL

+$28.87

Record

54%

549-476 (1025)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$39.16

Value

$39.61

PnL

+$0.45

Record

41%

425-614 (1039)

Anon455CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$20.2

Value

$17.7

PnL

-$2.5

Record

42%

149-205 (354)

ply-pm2CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$12.85

Value

$6.88

PnL

-$5.97

Record

53%

578-516 (1094)

ByteBadger92CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

822-611 (1433)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 91%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.0%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.64

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.