Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 5AM ET

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Down (71%) · Down at 99¢ · $537 held · ends Nov 10

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ends Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 71%

Total Value

$536.63

Combined PnL

-$9.52

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 99.4¢

+17% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Up1%

Down99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$528.55

Total Shares556

Combined PnL-$11.44

Up2 traders

Total Value$8.08

Total Shares107

Combined PnL+$1.93

Down — 71%Up — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609	Downavg 82.6¢	$242.4	$280.49	+$38.09	53% 614-535 (1149)
Polkadot-Frog	Downavg 94.8¢	$271.7	$223.43	-$48.27	54% 538-458 (996)
38 38791873984189<$100	Downavg 47¢	$12.77	$13.58	+$0.82	48% 721-776 (1497)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 47.7¢	$7.14	$7.49	+$0.35	53% 563-499 (1062)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$2.4	$4.2	+$1.8	39% 27-43 (70)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Upavg 8¢	$3.76	$3.88	+$0.13	42% 148-205 (353)
BY ByteBadger92<$100	Downavg 84¢	$5.99	$3.56	-$2.42	58% 794-586 (1380)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609

Down

Invested

$242.4

Value

$280.49

PnL

+$38.09

Record

53%

614-535 (1149)

Polkadot-Frog

Down

Invested

$271.7

Value

$223.43

PnL

-$48.27

Record

54%

538-458 (996)

38791873984189<$100

Down

Invested

$12.77

Value

$13.58

PnL

+$0.82

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$7.14

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

563-499 (1062)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$4.2

PnL

+$1.8

Record

39%

27-43 (70)

Anon455CTR<$100

Invested

$3.76

Value

$3.88

PnL

+$0.13

Record

42%

148-205 (353)

ByteBadger92<$100

Down

Invested

$5.99

Value

$3.56

PnL

-$2.42

Record

58%

794-586 (1380)

Research grade

NeutralDown at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.