Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 4AM ET
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Down (60%) · Down at 99¢ · $763 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
5
Down 60%
$763.39
$41.46
86.9¢ → 99.3¢
+14% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 86.6¢ | $491.11 | $524.84 | +$33.73 | 53% 579-512 (1091) |
 Polkadot-Frog | Downavg 88.3¢ | $193.4 | $199.46 | +$6.06 | 54% 518-449 (967) |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Upavg 10.4¢ | $28.52 | $28.88 | +$0.37 | 42% 147-205 (352) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 75.8¢ | $7.9 | $5.21 | -$2.69 | 53% 546-483 (1029) |
BY ByteBadger92CTR<$100 | Upavg 10¢ | $1 | $5 | +$4 | 57% 763-564 (1327) |
Invested
$491.11
Value
$524.84
PnL
+$33.73
Record
53%
579-512 (1091)
Polkadot-FrogInvested
$193.4
Value
$199.46
PnL
+$6.06
Record
54%
518-449 (967)
Invested
$28.52
Value
$28.88
PnL
+$0.37
Record
42%
147-205 (352)
Invested
$7.9
Value
$5.21
PnL
-$2.69
Record
53%
546-483 (1029)
Invested
$1
Value
$5
PnL
+$4
Record
57%
763-564 (1327)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.