Ethereum Up or Down - November 10, 3AM ET
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Down (100%) · Down at 79¢ · $472 held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Down
4
Down 100%
1 arb excluded
$471.93
$8.55
67.8¢ → 78.5¢
+16% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralDown at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609 | Downavg 68.7¢ | $311.77 | $320.4 | +$8.63 | 53% 564-506 (1070) |
 Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 73¢ | $90.24 | $77.57 | -$12.67 | 53% 505-440 (945) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 73¢ | $51.99 | $55.57 | +$3.58 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 38.3¢ | $38.25 | $22 | -$16.25 | |
AL almach<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $48 | $50 | +$2 | 39% 234-369 (603) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 60¢ | $15.21 | $12.68 | -$2.54 | 53% 536-466 (1002) |
MO mo-money<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $10.83 | $11.28 | +$0.45 | 38% 236-379 (615) |
Invested
$311.77
Value
$320.4
PnL
+$8.63
Record
53%
564-506 (1070)
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$90.24
Value
$77.57
PnL
-$12.67
Record
53%
505-440 (945)
Both legs:
Invested
$48
Value
$50
PnL
+$2
Record
39%
234-369 (603)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$12.68
PnL
-$2.54
Record
53%
536-466 (1002)
Invested
$10.83
Value
$11.28
PnL
+$0.45
Record
38%
236-379 (615)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.