Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 100¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$14.9K
$300.06
97.7¢ → 99.9¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $10.0K | $10.2K | +$255.32 | 65% 2633-1390 (4023) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 99.2¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$4.27 | 60% 1168-795 (1963) |
SH Sharky6999 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $1.9K | $1.9K | +$35.15 | 98% 6976-171 (7147) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.7¢ | $464.85 | $469.13 | +$5.45 | 59% 2378-1627 (4005) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $0.18 | $0.05 | -$0.14 | 46% 6086-7026 (13112) |
Invested
$9,984.83
Value
$10.2K
PnL
+$255.32
Record
65%
2633-1390 (4023)
Invested
$2,253.57
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$4.27
Record
60%
1168-795 (1963)
Invested
$1,905.1
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$35.15
Record
98%
6976-171 (7147)
Invested
$464.85
Value
$469.13
PnL
+$5.45
Record
59%
2378-1627 (4005)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.18
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.14
Record
46%
6086-7026 (13112)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.