Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on October 28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $10K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$9.8K
$36.84
97.6¢ → 98.3¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 97.4¢ | $6.7K | $6.6K | +$36.24 | 65% 2332-1258 (3590) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | -$3.14 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$3.44 | 59% 2147-1512 (3659) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $56.29 | $56.23 | -$0.06 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.8¢ | $12.6 | $12.95 | +$0.35 | 9% 45-437 (482) |
Invested
$6,736.49
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$36.24
Record
65%
2332-1258 (3590)
Invested
$2,034.97
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$3.14
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$1,123.89
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$3.44
Record
59%
2147-1512 (3659)
Invested
$56.29
Value
$56.23
PnL
-$0.06
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
Invested
$12.6
Value
$12.95
PnL
+$0.35
Record
9%
45-437 (482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.