Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on October 29?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 78¢ · $25K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$24.9K
-$107.36
79.1¢ → 77.5¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 80.1¢ | $14.0K | $13.5K | -$90.54 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 78.2¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$52.69 | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 78.1¢ | $2.7K | $2.4K | -$40.86 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 76¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$23.72 | 54% 382-327 (709) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 80.4¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$19.18 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 78.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$33.19 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
Invested
$14,018.2
Value
$13.5K
PnL
-$90.54
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$4,856.61
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$52.69
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Invested
$2,736.91
Value
$2.4K
PnL
-$40.86
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$1,755.69
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$23.72
Record
54%
382-327 (709)
Invested
$1,128.41
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$19.18
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$1,139.78
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$33.19
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.