Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 31?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 69¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 31

Yes69¢No31¢Ends Sat, Oct 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$7.12

Smart Money Entry

63.2¢ → 68.5¢

+8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes69%

No32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,788

Combined PnL-$64.74

No2 traders

Total Value$739.07

Total Shares1,814

Combined PnL+$71.87

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394	Yesavg 61.2¢	$917.5	$885	-$32.5	59% 1008-698 (1706)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR	Noavg 36.9¢	$650.11	$722.93	+$72.82	65% 2335-1260 (3595)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 78¢	$144.3	$109.15	-$35.15	64% 749-428 (1177)
HaileyWelch<$100	Yesavg 65.7¢	$67.81	$70.72	+$2.91	54% 239-202 (441)
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100	Noavg 33.4¢	$17.1	$16.14	-$0.96	59% 847-591 (1438)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394

Yes

Invested

$917.5

Value

$885

PnL

-$32.5

Record

59%

1008-698 (1706)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR

Invested

$650.11

Value

$722.93

PnL

+$72.82

Record

65%

2335-1260 (3595)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$144.3

Value

$109.15

PnL

-$35.15

Record

64%

749-428 (1177)

HaileyWelch<$100

Yes

Invested

$67.81

Value

$70.72

PnL

+$2.91

Record

54%

239-202 (441)

gobblewobbleCTR<$100

Invested

$17.1

Value

$16.14

PnL

-$0.96

Record

59%

847-591 (1438)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 69%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.88

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.