Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 50¢ · $5K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$4.8K
$324.47
87.3¢ → 50¢
-43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-10 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 90.7¢ | $2.6K | $2.3K | -$351.04 | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.2K | +$508.86 | 59% 1025-703 (1728) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 9¢ | $110.18 | $612.13 | +$504.78 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 68.2¢ | $820.37 | $601.45 | +$4.08 | |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 25.1¢ | $281.48 | $559.95 | +$278.47 | 59% 853-597 (1450) |
 HaileyWelch | Yesavg 70¢ | $321.17 | $437.85 | +$116.68 | 54% 243-203 (446) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 8.4¢ | $56.55 | $336.9 | +$280.36 | 59% 2166-1524 (3690) |
Invested
$2,604.33
Value
$2.3K
PnL
-$351.04
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
Invested
$1,614.87
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$508.86
Record
59%
1025-703 (1728)
Both legs:
Invested
$281.48
Value
$559.95
PnL
+$278.47
Record
59%
853-597 (1450)
HaileyWelchInvested
$321.17
Value
$437.85
PnL
+$116.68
Record
54%
243-203 (446)
Invested
$56.55
Value
$336.9
PnL
+$280.36
Record
59%
2166-1524 (3690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.