Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 86¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$4.1K
$245.37
90.6¢ → 86¢
-5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 91.5¢ | $3.6K | $3.6K | +$38.92 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 89.8¢ | $245.11 | $241.56 | -$3.55 | 59% 852-595 (1447) |
 HaileyWelch | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $95.3 | $119.73 | +$30.07 | 54% 241-202 (443) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 10.6¢ | $801.48 | $99.92 | +$180.01 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Yesavg 89¢ | $46.3 | $46.22 | -$0.08 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
Invested
$3,593.95
Value
$3.6K
PnL
+$38.92
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$245.11
Value
$241.56
PnL
-$3.55
Record
59%
852-595 (1447)
HaileyWelchInvested
$95.3
Value
$119.73
PnL
+$30.07
Record
54%
241-202 (443)
Invested
$801.48
Value
$99.92
PnL
+$180.01
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$46.3
Value
$46.22
PnL
-$0.08
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.