Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on October 28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$5.7K
-$515.35
91.6¢ → 96.4¢
+5% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 92.6¢ | $5.4K | $4.8K | -$568.17 | 65% 2334-1260 (3594) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $426.74 | $438.85 | +$12.1 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 70.9¢ | $243.4 | $306.98 | +$63.58 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
NE never-stop-clickingCTR | Noavg 3.8¢ | $130.53 | $106.48 | -$24.04 | 30% 77-181 (258) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Yesavg 96¢ | $31.32 | $31.67 | +$0.36 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
 HaileyWelch<$100 | Yesavg 63.6¢ | $1.82 | $2.64 | +$0.82 | 54% 239-202 (441) |
Invested
$5,414.15
Value
$4.8K
PnL
-$568.17
Record
65%
2334-1260 (3594)
Invested
$426.74
Value
$438.85
PnL
+$12.1
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$243.4
Value
$306.98
PnL
+$63.58
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$130.53
Value
$106.48
PnL
-$24.04
Record
30%
77-181 (258)
Invested
$31.32
Value
$31.67
PnL
+$0.36
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
HaileyWelch<$100Invested
$1.82
Value
$2.64
PnL
+$0.82
Record
54%
239-202 (441)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.