Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 2?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $38K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$37.9K
$502.47
74.4¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaileyWelch | Noavg 75.2¢ | $31.3K | $31.8K | +$545.96 | 55% 246-203 (449) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 67.9¢ | $5.5K | $3.7K | +$279.02 | 65% 2440-1291 (3731) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $2.2K | $1.6K | -$314.03 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 74.4¢ | $450 | $330.75 | -$4.1 | 63% 784-463 (1247) |
19 196874353278 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $290.3 | $297.59 | -$4.38 | 44% 189-244 (433) |
GO gobblewobbleARB<$100 | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $127.22 | $149.5 | +$21.26 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21.8¢ | $109.83 | $118.36 | +$21.12 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 73.7¢ | $29.99 | $31.14 | +$0.13 |
HaileyWelchInvested
$31,268.08
Value
$31.8K
PnL
+$545.96
Record
55%
246-203 (449)
Invested
$5,481.52
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$279.02
Record
65%
2440-1291 (3731)
Invested
$2,234.13
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$314.03
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$450
Value
$330.75
PnL
-$4.1
Record
63%
784-463 (1247)
Invested
$290.3
Value
$297.59
PnL
-$4.38
Record
44%
189-244 (433)
Invested
$127.22
Value
$149.5
PnL
+$21.26
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
Both legs:
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.