Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on November 1?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 50¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$2.3K
-$2.44
62.3¢ → 50¢
-20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 90%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 60.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$154.63 | 59% 1025-703 (1728) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 39.3¢ | $814.61 | $632.3 | -$182.31 | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
 HaileyWelch | Yesavg 72.4¢ | $174.6 | $167.71 | -$6.89 | 54% 243-203 (446) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 63¢ | $137.5 | $151.8 | +$14.3 | 63% 756-438 (1194) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 24.2¢ | $68.4 | $86.23 | +$17.83 | 59% 853-597 (1450) |
Invested
$1,085.18
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$154.63
Record
59%
1025-703 (1728)
Invested
$814.61
Value
$632.3
PnL
-$182.31
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
HaileyWelchInvested
$174.6
Value
$167.71
PnL
-$6.89
Record
54%
243-203 (446)
Invested
$137.5
Value
$151.8
PnL
+$14.3
Record
63%
756-438 (1194)
Invested
$68.4
Value
$86.23
PnL
+$17.83
Record
59%
853-597 (1450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.