Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (61%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 39¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$6.4K
$1.9K
30.4¢ → 39.1¢
+29% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 30.7¢ | $2.7K | $3.9K | +$1.2K | 65% 2370-1275 (3645) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 72.2¢ | $2.2K | $1.8K | +$689.82 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
TO Tokor | Yesavg 58.1¢ | $1.1K | $593.74 | -$25.01 | 63% 762-442 (1204) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $20.09 | $63.58 | +$43.49 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Yesavg 47.2¢ | $20.77 | $24.67 | +$3.9 | — |
Invested
$2,738.26
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
65%
2370-1275 (3645)
Invested
$2,191.56
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$689.82
Record
60%
1039-705 (1744)
Invested
$1,065
Value
$593.74
PnL
-$25.01
Record
63%
762-442 (1204)
Invested
$20.09
Value
$63.58
PnL
+$43.49
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$20.77
Value
$24.67
PnL
+$3.9
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.