Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 87¢ · $18K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$17.8K
$-2.5K
94.4¢ → 86.9¢
-8% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 94.8¢ | $16.0K | $14.0K | $-2.0K | 65% 2367-1271 (3638) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 93.5¢ | $4.0K | $3.2K | -$442.53 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 90.5¢ | $389.4 | $389.26 | -$18.06 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
0X 0xDB5CTR | Noavg 11¢ | $91.18 | $102.86 | +$11.67 | 59% 2174-1531 (3705) |
 balthazar<$100 | Yesavg 92¢ | $64.4 | $62.3 | -$2.1 | 61% 20889-13298 (34187) |
TO Tokor<$100 | Yesavg 77¢ | $31.85 | $34.12 | +$2.27 | 63% 758-438 (1196) |
Invested
$16,037.66
Value
$14.0K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
65%
2367-1271 (3638)
Invested
$3,954
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$442.53
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$389.4
Value
$389.26
PnL
-$18.06
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$91.18
Value
$102.86
PnL
+$11.67
Record
59%
2174-1531 (3705)
balthazar<$100Invested
$64.4
Value
$62.3
PnL
-$2.1
Record
61%
20889-13298 (34187)
Invested
$31.85
Value
$34.12
PnL
+$2.27
Record
63%
758-438 (1196)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.