Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on October 29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 100¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$9.1K
-$370.75
95.9¢ → 99.6¢
+4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 95¢ | $7.1K | $6.7K | -$404.18 | 65% 2348-1268 (3616) |
NO nonkenny90 | Yesavg 99.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.4K | -$161.6 | 89% 4588-544 (5132) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 97.3¢ | $548.81 | $504.88 | -$43.93 | 59% 2163-1516 (3679) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 3.8¢ | $357.2 | $373.16 | +$237.76 | 59% 1023-702 (1725) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 8.4¢ | $4.74 | $5.93 | +$1.19 | 59% 852-595 (1447) |
Invested
$7,146.66
Value
$6.7K
PnL
-$404.18
Record
65%
2348-1268 (3616)
Invested
$1,593.6
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$161.6
Record
89%
4588-544 (5132)
Invested
$548.81
Value
$504.88
PnL
-$43.93
Record
59%
2163-1516 (3679)
Invested
$357.2
Value
$373.16
PnL
+$237.76
Record
59%
1023-702 (1725)
Invested
$4.74
Value
$5.93
PnL
+$1.19
Record
59%
852-595 (1447)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.