Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 73¢ · $20K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$20.4K
-$813.31
82.6¢ → 72.5¢
-12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $9.6K | $9.1K | -$520.6 | 63% 770-443 (1213) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 90.9¢ | $10.1K | $8.5K | $-1.6K | 65% 2397-1278 (3675) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 67.7¢ | $3.4K | $2.8K | +$1.3K | 59% 1047-717 (1764) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 32.9¢ | $40.94 | $37.99 | -$2.95 | 59% 862-600 (1462) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Yesavg 67.4¢ | $22.56 | $23.27 | +$0.71 | 43% 170-221 (391) |
Invested
$9,631
Value
$9.1K
PnL
-$520.6
Record
63%
770-443 (1213)
Invested
$10,113.19
Value
$8.5K
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
65%
2397-1278 (3675)
Invested
$3,366.1
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$1.3K
Record
59%
1047-717 (1764)
Invested
$40.94
Value
$37.99
PnL
-$2.95
Record
59%
862-600 (1462)
Invested
$22.56
Value
$23.27
PnL
+$0.71
Record
43%
170-221 (391)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.