Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 12?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 98¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$4.2K
$210.93
96.3¢ → 98.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $3.1K | $2.9K | +$210.02 | 66% 95-49 (144) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $775.59 | $776.38 | +$0.79 | 73% 67-25 (92) |
NO NotJump | Noavg 96.5¢ | $482.57 | $491.99 | +$9.42 | 55% 375-311 (686) |
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100 | Noavg 98.5¢ | $51.7 | $51.69 | -$0.02 | 53% 16-14 (30) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $71.67 | $20.03 | -$4.27 | 47% 742-833 (1575) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $8.88 | $2.6 | -$5.01 | 47% 1377-1532 (2909) |
Invested
$3,057.14
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$210.02
Record
66%
95-49 (144)
Invested
$775.59
Value
$776.38
PnL
+$0.79
Record
73%
67-25 (92)
Invested
$482.57
Value
$491.99
PnL
+$9.42
Record
55%
375-311 (686)
Invested
$51.7
Value
$51.69
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
16-14 (30)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$71.67
Value
$20.03
PnL
-$4.27
Record
47%
742-833 (1575)
Invested
$8.88
Value
$2.6
PnL
-$5.01
Record
47%
1377-1532 (2909)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.