Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 59¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$16.0K
$2.9K
69.8¢ → 58.9¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 59%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO Tokor | Yesavg 69.9¢ | $5.9K | $7.1K | +$1.2K | 63% 758-439 (1197) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 30¢ | $4.9K | $6.6K | +$1.6K | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $2.9K | $2.3K | +$940.36 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 69.3¢ | $2.1K | $1.6K | -$375.76 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 7.2¢ | $106.69 | $714.12 | +$1.3K | |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 17.1¢ | $15.71 | $29.11 | +$13.13 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
AB 0xab15...46e5<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | $2.6 | $4.53 | +$2.41 | — |
Invested
$5,876.41
Value
$7.1K
PnL
+$1.2K
Record
63%
758-439 (1197)
Invested
$4,936.71
Value
$6.6K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$2,905.39
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$940.36
Record
60%
1039-705 (1744)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.71
Value
$29.11
PnL
+$13.13
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$2.6
Value
$4.53
PnL
+$2.41
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.