Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on November 14?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 98¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 14

Yes98¢No2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$36.51

Smart Money Entry

97.9¢ → 98¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes98%

No2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$10.4K

Total Shares10,635

Combined PnL-$42.25

No3 traders

Total Value$182.64

Total Shares9,185

Combined PnL+$5.74

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 97.9¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	-$42.23	68% 148-69 (217)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 97.7¢	$166.12	$165.78	-$0.34	42% 2607-3596 (6203)
TI timetowanderCTR	Noavg 1.9¢	$153.1	$161.22	+$8.12	45% 357-437 (794)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 97.7¢	$86.13	$46.58	+$0.27	48% 1198-1305 (2503)
EA Eager47259CTR<$100	Noavg 2.2¢	$26.25	$20.18	-$2.36	50% 157-157 (314)
0X 0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100	Yesavg 97.5¢	$4.88	$4.92	+$0.04	58% 26-19 (45)
NO NotJump<$100	Yesavg 97.1¢	$1.51	$1.51	+$0.01	53% 634-568 (1202)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100	Noavg 2¢	$1.25	$1.24	-$0.01	— 6-7 (13)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$10,193.11

Value

$10.2K

PnL

-$42.23

Record

68%

148-69 (217)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$166.12

Value

$165.78

PnL

-$0.34

Record

42%

2607-3596 (6203)

timetowanderCTR

Invested

$153.1

Value

$161.22

PnL

+$8.12

Record

45%

357-437 (794)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$86.13

Value

$46.58

PnL

+$0.27

Record

48%

1198-1305 (2503)

Eager47259CTR<$100

Invested

$26.25

Value

$20.18

PnL

-$2.36

Record

50%

157-157 (314)

0x39AaEd185b92e99a78249610cc14A589B764583C-1759470981616<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.88

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.04

Record

58%

26-19 (45)

NotJump<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.51

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

634-568 (1202)

kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.24

PnL

-$0.01

Record

—

6-7 (13)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.1%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.94

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.