Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on November 12?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (17%) · Yes at 100¢ · $482 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 17%
$481.9
$0.88
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98.2¢ | $476.27 | $480.56 | +$4.3 | 65% 87-46 (133) |
NO NotJumpCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.2¢ | $0.33 | $0.58 | +$0.25 | 55% 367-301 (668) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.9¢ | $3.73 | $0.39 | -$3.34 | 47% 1320-1474 (2794) |
E4 e46m3CTR<$100 | Noavg 0.3¢ | $0.32 | $0.19 | -$0.13 | 43% 2565-3363 (5928) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.2¢ | $0.12 | $0.1 | -$0.02 | 51% 4781-4575 (9356) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Noavg 0.6¢ | $0.25 | $0.08 | -$0.17 | — 4-3 (7) |
Invested
$476.27
Value
$480.56
PnL
+$4.3
Record
65%
87-46 (133)
Invested
$0.33
Value
$0.58
PnL
+$0.25
Record
55%
367-301 (668)
Invested
$3.73
Value
$0.39
PnL
-$3.34
Record
47%
1320-1474 (2794)
Invested
$0.32
Value
$0.19
PnL
-$0.13
Record
43%
2565-3363 (5928)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$0.12
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$0.02
Record
51%
4781-4575 (9356)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.08
PnL
-$0.17
Record
—
4-3 (7)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.