Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on November 16?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 93¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 16

Yes93¢No7¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.2K

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 92.8¢

+3% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes93%

No7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares6,356

Combined PnL$-1.5K

No3 traders

Total Value$313.5

Total Shares4,237

Combined PnL+$261.18

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 92¢	$13.0K	$5.2K	$-1.8K	68% 236-111 (347)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 66.8¢	$810.61	$493.28	+$297.31	51% 152-144 (296)
TI timetowanderCTR	Noavg 1.1¢	$44.11	$296.74	+$252.64	45% 368-455 (823)
E4 e46m3	Yesavg 95¢	$248.25	$242.91	-$5.34	40% 2685-4008 (6693)
HaileyWelchCTR<$100	Noavg 3.4¢	$7.42	$16.12	+$8.7	— 9-2 (11)
cryingbabydicer87<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$76.7	$4.55	-$0.89	50% 1774-1809 (3583)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 8.7¢	$0.8	$0.64	-$0.16	42% 5249-7280 (12529)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$12,994.35

Value

$5.2K

PnL

$-1.8K

Record

68%

236-111 (347)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$810.61

Value

$493.28

PnL

+$297.31

Record

51%

152-144 (296)

timetowanderCTR

Invested

$44.11

Value

$296.74

PnL

+$252.64

Record

45%

368-455 (823)

e46m3

Yes

Invested

$248.25

Value

$242.91

PnL

-$5.34

Record

40%

2685-4008 (6693)

HaileyWelchCTR<$100

Invested

$7.42

Value

$16.12

PnL

+$8.7

Record

—

9-2 (11)

cryingbabydicer87<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.7

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.89

Record

50%

1774-1809 (3583)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.16

Record

42%

5249-7280 (12529)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 93%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

92.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.