Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Up (74%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 74%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$22.5

Smart Money Entry

64.9¢ → 100¢

+54% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up14 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,159

Combined PnL+$26.86

Down5 traders

Total Value$6.63

Total Shares349

Combined PnL-$4.36

Up — 74%Down — 26%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$5.45	60% 652-437 (1089)
BY ByteBadger92	Upavg 50¢	$500	$500	+$0	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
HO hoodquant	Upavg 98.9¢	$317.54	$320.84	+$3.3	98% 4700-98 (4798)
0X 0x50f7	Upavg 99.9¢	$294.71	$294.85	+$0.15	54% 1670-1435 (3105)
pspspsps5	Upavg 98.7¢	$194.96	$196.61	+$1.65	34% 1285-2527 (3812)
SO soswald1	Upavg 50¢	$150	$150	+$0	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
Polkadot-Frog	Upavg 77.8¢	$111.32	$98.81	+$12.49	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 90.6¢	$40.76	$44.98	+$4.22	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 69¢	$34.5	$37.25	+$2.75	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 85¢	$13.18	$14.18	+$1.01	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 97.1¢	$12.13	$10.75	-$1.38	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 99.9¢	$12.92	$10.05	-$2.86	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Downavg 40¢	$3.6	$3.65	+$0.05	57% 5242-3886 (9128)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.97	+$0.12	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
PB PBot-5<$100	Upavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.53	-$0.02	48% 1554-1679 (3233)
LI Little-bigCTR<$100	Downavg 51¢	$2.55	$2.48	-$0.07	51% 1178-1119 (2297)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 2¢	$0.12	$0.27	+$0.15	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Downavg 1.4¢	$4.67	$0.16	-$4.51	46% 3434-3964 (7398)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Downavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.08	+$0.02	36% 1532-2761 (4293)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5.45

Record

60%

652-437 (1089)

ByteBadger92

Invested

$500

Value

$500

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

hoodquant

Invested

$317.54

Value

$320.84

PnL

+$3.3

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

0x50f7

Invested

$294.71

Value

$294.85

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

1670-1435 (3105)

pspspsps5

Invested

$194.96

Value

$196.61

PnL

+$1.65

Record

34%

1285-2527 (3812)

soswald1

Invested

$150

Value

$150

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

Polkadot-Frog

Invested

$111.32

Value

$98.81

PnL

+$12.49

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$40.76

Value

$44.98

PnL

+$4.22

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$34.5

Value

$37.25

PnL

+$2.75

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$13.18

Value

$14.18

PnL

+$1.01

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$12.13

Value

$10.75

PnL

-$1.38

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$12.92

Value

$10.05

PnL

-$2.86

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$3.6

Value

$3.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

5242-3886 (9128)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

PBot-5<$100

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.02

Record

48%

1554-1679 (3233)

Little-bigCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$2.55

Value

$2.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

51%

1178-1119 (2297)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.27

PnL

+$0.15

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

suntoriCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$4.67

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$4.51

Record

46%

3434-3964 (7398)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

1532-2761 (4293)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.