Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET
Resolved Down. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 59%
4 arb excluded
$2.7K
-$180.96
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$3.78 | 60% 652-437 (1089) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $683.69 | $1.4K | +$700.51 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $681.54 | — | -$696.73 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $527.6 | $493.01 | +$8.07 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $248.55 | $493.01 | +$252.37 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.1¢ | $240.75 | — | -$244.3 | |
UN uninformedfloww | Downavg 57.9¢ | $526.37 | $453.14 | -$56.48 | 49% 2596-2668 (5264) |
AS asdcaxzCTR | Upavg 43.9¢ | $171.38 | — | -$161.78 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609ARB<$100 | Downavg 61.5¢ | $107.63 | $104.29 | -$3.34 | 49% 3753-3853 (7606) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 61.5¢ | $64.14 | $104.29 | +$40.15 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 40.2¢ | $43.49 | — | -$43.49 | |
PL ply-pm2ARB<$100 | Downavg 58.6¢ | $73.74 | $73.08 | -$0.66 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 58.6¢ | $42.81 | $73.08 | +$30.27 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 39.5¢ | $30.93 | — | -$30.93 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 73.5¢ | $29.97 | $40.76 | +$10.79 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 57.2¢ | $30.46 | $27.26 | -$3.2 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $29.7 | $30 | +$0.3 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 42.4¢ | $16.7 | $34.87 | +$18.17 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
 ohioism<$100 | Downavg 39¢ | $6.84 | $16 | +$9.16 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 77.8¢ | $16.5 | $17.26 | +$2.1 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 65¢ | $13 | $20 | +$7 | 60% 4369-2959 (7328) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 52¢ | $6.24 | $12 | +$5.76 | 70% 1911-827 (2738) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 53¢ | $5.56 | $5.28 | -$0.28 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 68¢ | $5.67 | $8.34 | +$2.67 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100 | Downavg 42¢ | $2.52 | $6 | +$3.48 | 43% 2221-2992 (5213) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $0.48 | — | -$0.48 | 53% 3147-2839 (5986) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $2 | $4 | +$2 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 29.7¢ | $3.25 | — | -$3.25 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 14¢ | $1 | — | -$1 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Upavg 2¢ | $0.44 | — | -$0.44 | 54% 1670-1435 (3105) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 8¢ | $1.2 | — | -$1.2 | 50% 2955-2954 (5909) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 13.3¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 53.6¢ | $8.58 | — | -$8.58 | 57% 5242-3886 (9128) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.78
Record
60%
652-437 (1089)
Both legs:
Invested
$527.6
Value
$493.01
PnL
+$8.07
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$526.37
Value
$453.14
PnL
-$56.48
Record
49%
2596-2668 (5264)
Invested
$171.38
Value
—
PnL
-$161.78
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$107.63
Value
$104.29
PnL
-$3.34
Record
49%
3753-3853 (7606)
Both legs:
Invested
$73.74
Value
$73.08
PnL
-$0.66
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$29.97
Value
$40.76
PnL
+$10.79
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$30.46
Value
$27.26
PnL
-$3.2
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
Invested
$29.7
Value
$30
PnL
+$0.3
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$16.7
Value
$34.87
PnL
+$18.17
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
ohioism<$100Invested
$6.84
Value
$16
PnL
+$9.16
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$16.5
Value
$17.26
PnL
+$2.1
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$13
Value
$20
PnL
+$7
Record
60%
4369-2959 (7328)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$6.24
Value
$12
PnL
+$5.76
Record
70%
1911-827 (2738)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$5.56
Value
$5.28
PnL
-$0.28
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
Invested
$5.67
Value
$8.34
PnL
+$2.67
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
Invested
$2.52
Value
$6
PnL
+$3.48
Record
43%
2221-2992 (5213)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.48
Value
—
PnL
-$0.48
Record
53%
3147-2839 (5986)
Invested
$2
Value
$4
PnL
+$2
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$3.25
Value
—
PnL
-$3.25
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Invested
$1
Value
—
PnL
-$1
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$0.44
Value
—
PnL
-$0.44
Record
54%
1670-1435 (3105)
Invested
$1.2
Value
—
PnL
-$1.2
Record
50%
2955-2954 (5909)
Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$8.58
Value
—
PnL
-$8.58
Record
57%
5242-3886 (9128)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
Down — $453.14
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $40.76
rabadabadoo
Down — $27.26
hoodquant
Down — $30
G-Penis-Monster
Down — $34.87