Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET

9 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Up (56%) · Up at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Up>99¢Down<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

Up 56%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

$7.66

Smart Money Entry

90.4¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%

Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$489.54

Total Shares492

Combined PnL+$1.64

Down7 traders

Total Value$40.56

Total Shares102

Combined PnL+$6.02

Up — 56%Down — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.57	60% 652-437 (1089)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$732.17	$739.49	+$9.71
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$732.62	$725.29	-$10.29
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$504.39	$500	+$2.1	54% 4416-3739 (8155)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$312.5	+$62.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$249.4	$187.5	-$60.4
HO hoodquant	Upavg 99¢	$187.11	$188.91	+$1.8	98% 4700-98 (4798)
SO soswald1ARB<$100	Upavg 50¢	$150	$142.03	+$0.83	52% 4002-3711 (7713)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$70	$83.3	+$13.95
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$72.5	$58.73	-$13.13
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100	Downavg 34.6¢	$71	$88.1	+$17.1	49% 2596-2668 (5264)
└ Up leg	Upavg 41.3¢	$33.6	$57.8	+$24.2
└ Down leg	Downavg 34.6¢	$37.4	$30.3	-$7.1
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 82.3¢	$77.75	$75.15	-$2.6	50% 4723-4777 (9500)
pspspsps5<$100	Upavg 98¢	$66.17	$66.57	+$0.39	34% 1285-2527 (3812)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Upavg 96.2¢	$77.58	$65.3	+$2.57	40% 1813-2746 (4559)
Polkadot-Frog<$100	Upavg 48.5¢	$36.14	$38.82	+$2.68	51% 2638-2500 (5138)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100	Upavg 98¢	$38.87	$31.57	-$7.3	49% 3753-3853 (7606)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 56¢	$8.69	$12.9	+$4.2	54% 2814-2386 (5200)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Downavg 38.1¢	$9.09	$11.81	+$2.73	51% 2283-2160 (4443)
BL blue.birdsCTR<$100	Downavg 27¢	$8.1	$8.4	+$0.3	52% 5253-4908 (10161)
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$5.92	$7.92	+$2	48% 2635-2900 (5535)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100	Downavg 46.3¢	$6.95	$6.83	-$0.13	44% 2501-3236 (5737)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100	Upavg 98¢	$5.88	$5.85	-$0.03	43% 2221-2992 (5213)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 91¢	$4.55	$4.48	-$0.08	66% 4119-2085 (6204)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Downavg 37¢	$1.96	$2.62	+$0.66	46% 1752-2030 (3782)
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100	Downavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.48	+$0.58	62% 4812-2936 (7748)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Downavg 9.2¢	$0.62	$0.51	-$0.11	53% 3147-2839 (5986)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.57

Record

60%

652-437 (1089)

Both legs:

Up$732.1750¢+$9.71

Down$732.6250¢-$10.29

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$504.39

Value

$500

PnL

+$2.1

Record

54%

4416-3739 (8155)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$62.5

Up$249.449.9¢-$60.4

hoodquant

Invested

$187.11

Value

$188.91

PnL

+$1.8

Record

98%

4700-98 (4798)

soswald1ARB<$100

Invested

$150

Value

$142.03

PnL

+$0.83

Record

52%

4002-3711 (7713)

Both legs:

Down$7050¢+$13.95

Up$72.550¢-$13.13

uninformedflowwARB<$100

Down

Invested

$71

Value

$88.1

PnL

+$17.1

Record

49%

2596-2668 (5264)

Both legs:

Up$33.641.3¢+$24.2

Down$37.434.6¢-$7.1

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$77.75

Value

$75.15

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

4723-4777 (9500)

pspspsps5<$100

Invested

$66.17

Value

$66.57

PnL

+$0.39

Record

34%

1285-2527 (3812)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Invested

$77.58

Value

$65.3

PnL

+$2.57

Record

40%

1813-2746 (4559)

Polkadot-Frog<$100

Invested

$36.14

Value

$38.82

PnL

+$2.68

Record

51%

2638-2500 (5138)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100

Invested

$38.87

Value

$31.57

PnL

-$7.3

Record

49%

3753-3853 (7606)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$8.69

Value

$12.9

PnL

+$4.2

Record

54%

2814-2386 (5200)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$9.09

Value

$11.81

PnL

+$2.73

Record

51%

2283-2160 (4443)

blue.birdsCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.3

Record

52%

5253-4908 (10161)

0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$5.92

Value

$7.92

PnL

+$2

Record

48%

2635-2900 (5535)

G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$0.13

Record

44%

2501-3236 (5737)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710<$100

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

2221-2992 (5213)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$4.55

Value

$4.48

PnL

-$0.08

Record

66%

4119-2085 (6204)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.96

Value

$2.62

PnL

+$0.66

Record

46%

1752-2030 (3782)

drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.48

PnL

+$0.58

Record

62%

4812-2936 (7748)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$0.62

Value

$0.51

PnL

-$0.11

Record

53%

3147-2839 (5986)

Research grade

NeutralUp at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 16 top traders (56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%15 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.