Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET
Resolved Down. 63% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
19
Up 61%
$825.19
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 19 top traders (63%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.5K | 60% 652-437 (1089) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Downavg 50¢ | $501.18 | $497.67 | -$0.09 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 74.5¢ | $103.55 | $118.76 | +$16.21 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
SO soswald1CTR | Upavg 50¢ | $150 | — | -$118.47 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.8¢ | $103.69 | $105 | +$1.31 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 89.1¢ | $57.15 | $55 | -$2.15 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 69.9¢ | $21.45 | $18.52 | -$2.93 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 72.4¢ | $21.18 | $16.98 | +$2.02 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 40¢ | $11.6 | — | -$11.6 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 33¢ | $13.2 | — | -$13.2 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
PB PBot-6CTR<$100 | Upavg 45.5¢ | $9.1 | — | -$9.1 | 50% 1016-1007 (2023) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48¢ | $9.6 | — | -$9.6 | 48% 1554-1679 (3233) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $22.04 | — | -$22.04 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 73.3¢ | $9.71 | $13.25 | +$3.54 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 31¢ | $4.18 | — | -$4.18 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Upavg 37¢ | $2.46 | — | -$2.46 | 50% 2955-2954 (5909) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 36.8¢ | $3.45 | — | -$3.45 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Upavg 28¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 38¢ | $38.91 | — | +$5.8 | 46% 3434-3964 (7398) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.5K
Record
60%
652-437 (1089)
Invested
$501.18
Value
$497.67
PnL
-$0.09
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Invested
$103.55
Value
$118.76
PnL
+$16.21
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$150
Value
—
PnL
-$118.47
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$103.69
Value
$105
PnL
+$1.31
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$57.15
Value
$55
PnL
-$2.15
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$21.45
Value
$18.52
PnL
-$2.93
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
Invested
$21.18
Value
$16.98
PnL
+$2.02
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$11.6
Value
—
PnL
-$11.6
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$13.2
Value
—
PnL
-$13.2
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Invested
$9.1
Value
—
PnL
-$9.1
Record
50%
1016-1007 (2023)
Invested
$9.6
Value
—
PnL
-$9.6
Record
48%
1554-1679 (3233)
Invested
$22.04
Value
—
PnL
-$22.04
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$9.71
Value
$13.25
PnL
+$3.54
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
Invested
$4.18
Value
—
PnL
-$4.18
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$2.46
Value
—
PnL
-$2.46
Record
50%
2955-2954 (5909)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$3.45
Value
—
PnL
-$3.45
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$38.91
Value
—
PnL
+$5.8
Record
46%
3434-3964 (7398)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
Down — $497.67
asdcaxz
Down — $118.76
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
hoodquant
Down — $105
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $55
rabadabadoo
Down — $18.52
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $16.98
G-Penis-Monster
CTRUp — $0
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530
CTRUp — $0