Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET
Resolved Down. 56% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
16
Down 56%
2 arb excluded
$2.2K
-$301.9
Smart Money Signal
9 of 16 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$0.66 | 60% 652-437 (1089) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $501.44 | $490.01 | -$6.03 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $251.44 | — | -$251.44 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | $490.01 | +$245.4 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.4¢ | $193.58 | $121.1 | -$72.48 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.4¢ | $133.63 | — | -$133.63 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $59.96 | $121.1 | +$61.14 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $97.02 | $98 | +$0.98 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 66.5¢ | $48.25 | $50 | +$1.75 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 43.4¢ | $29.41 | $55 | +$25.59 | 57% 5242-3886 (9128) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $18.3 | $25 | +$6.7 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 80¢ | $14.71 | $15 | +$0.29 | 60% 4369-2959 (7328) |
SO soswald1CTR<$100 | Upavg 44¢ | $13.2 | — | -$13.2 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Upavg 19¢ | $11 | — | -$11 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $9.5 | $10 | +$0.5 | 53% 3147-2839 (5986) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 39.3¢ | $15.7 | — | -$15.7 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 34.5¢ | $8.99 | — | -$8.99 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 80.1¢ | $5.25 | $5.18 | +$0.38 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $4.38 | $6.35 | +$1.97 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR | Upavg 33.7¢ | $173.35 | — | -$173.35 | 49% 2596-2668 (5264) |
LI Little-bigCTR<$100 | Upavg 51.4¢ | $66.25 | — | -$66.25 | 51% 1178-1119 (2297) |
PB PBot-5CTR<$100 | Upavg 48.1¢ | $50.89 | — | -$50.89 | 48% 1554-1679 (3233) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$0.66
Record
60%
652-437 (1089)
Invested
$501.44
Value
$490.01
PnL
-$6.03
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$193.58
Value
$121.1
PnL
-$72.48
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Both legs:
Invested
$97.02
Value
$98
PnL
+$0.98
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$48.25
Value
$50
PnL
+$1.75
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$29.41
Value
$55
PnL
+$25.59
Record
57%
5242-3886 (9128)
Invested
$18.3
Value
$25
PnL
+$6.7
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
Invested
$14.71
Value
$15
PnL
+$0.29
Record
60%
4369-2959 (7328)
Invested
$13.2
Value
—
PnL
-$13.2
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$11
Value
—
PnL
-$11
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$9.5
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.5
Record
53%
3147-2839 (5986)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$15.7
Value
—
PnL
-$15.7
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$8.99
Value
—
PnL
-$8.99
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$5.25
Value
$5.18
PnL
+$0.38
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$4.38
Value
$6.35
PnL
+$1.97
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
Invested
$173.35
Value
—
PnL
-$173.35
Record
49%
2596-2668 (5264)
Invested
$66.25
Value
—
PnL
-$66.25
Record
51%
1178-1119 (2297)
Invested
$50.89
Value
—
PnL
-$50.89
Record
48%
1554-1679 (3233)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.4K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $98
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $50
Hcrystallash
Down — $55
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $25
aaa221
Down — $15
soswald1
CTRUp — $0
asdcaxz
CTRUp — $0