Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
Resolved Down. 32% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.
💀
Lost
22
Up 33%
1 arb excluded
$991.76
$-1.5K
Smart Money Signal
7 of 22 top traders (32%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%20 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | — | $-1.4K | 60% 652-437 (1089) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.4¢ | $509.35 | $497.32 | -$3.19 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.7¢ | $248.63 | — | -$251.5 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.4¢ | $250.71 | $497.32 | +$248.31 | |
 pspspsps5 | Downavg 99¢ | $132.92 | $134.26 | +$1.34 | 34% 1285-2527 (3812) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $60.01 | $60.62 | +$0.61 | 70% 1911-827 (2738) |
AS asdcaxz<$100 | Downavg 69¢ | $54.75 | $50.72 | -$4.02 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 65.8¢ | $32.88 | $50 | +$17.12 | 48% 2635-2900 (5535) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 69.3¢ | $42.98 | $62 | +$19.02 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100 | Upavg 37.7¢ | $17.94 | — | -$17.94 | 57% 5242-3886 (9128) |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $36.44 | $21.59 | -$14.85 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 65.2¢ | $21.15 | $20.78 | -$0.37 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 94.6¢ | $17.24 | $16 | -$1.24 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 78.1¢ | $21.05 | $24.69 | +$3.64 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 91¢ | $15.38 | $12.78 | -$2.6 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $14.62 | $13 | -$1.62 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Downavg 70¢ | $14 | $20 | +$6 | 60% 4369-2959 (7328) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 29¢ | $6.76 | — | -$6.76 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 36¢ | $5 | — | -$5 | 36% 1532-2761 (4293) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 50% 2955-2954 (5909) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.4¢ | $2.83 | — | -$2.83 | 53% 3147-2839 (5986) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 7.9¢ | $2.77 | — | -$2.77 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
 G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Downavg 62¢ | $0.62 | $1 | +$0.38 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 1.4¢ | $3.2 | — | -$3.2 | 43% 2221-2992 (5213) |
SU suntori<$100 | Downavg 86.5¢ | $18.68 | $0.01 | +$2.7 | 46% 3434-3964 (7398) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
—
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
652-437 (1089)
Invested
$509.35
Value
$497.32
PnL
-$3.19
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
pspspsps5Invested
$132.92
Value
$134.26
PnL
+$1.34
Record
34%
1285-2527 (3812)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$60.01
Value
$60.62
PnL
+$0.61
Record
70%
1911-827 (2738)
Invested
$54.75
Value
$50.72
PnL
-$4.02
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Invested
$32.88
Value
$50
PnL
+$17.12
Record
48%
2635-2900 (5535)
Invested
$42.98
Value
$62
PnL
+$19.02
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$17.94
Value
—
PnL
-$17.94
Record
57%
5242-3886 (9128)
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$36.44
Value
$21.59
PnL
-$14.85
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$21.15
Value
$20.78
PnL
-$0.37
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$17.24
Value
$16
PnL
-$1.24
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$21.05
Value
$24.69
PnL
+$3.64
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
Invested
$15.38
Value
$12.78
PnL
-$2.6
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Invested
$14.62
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.62
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$14
Value
$20
PnL
+$6
Record
60%
4369-2959 (7328)
Invested
$6.76
Value
—
PnL
-$6.76
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Invested
$5
Value
—
PnL
-$5
Record
36%
1532-2761 (4293)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
50%
2955-2954 (5909)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$2.83
Value
—
PnL
-$2.83
Record
53%
3147-2839 (5986)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$2.77
Value
—
PnL
-$2.77
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$0.62
Value
$1
PnL
+$0.38
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$3.2
Value
—
PnL
-$3.2
Record
43%
2221-2992 (5213)
Invested
$18.68
Value
$0.01
PnL
+$2.7
Record
46%
3434-3964 (7398)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRUp — $0
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
pspspsps5
Down — $134.26
BoneOhio
Down — $60.62
asdcaxz
Down — $50.72
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Down — $50
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $62
Hcrystallash
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
Down — $21.59
soswald1
Down — $20.78