Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
Resolved Down. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
20
Down 50%
3 arb excluded
$8.2K
-$71.96
Smart Money Signal
10 of 20 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%16 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x50f7 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.8K | $4.8K | +$48.28 | 54% 1670-1435 (3105) |
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | -$10.71 | 60% 652-437 (1089) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $745.88 | — | -$745.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $737.25 | $1.5K | +$734.49 | |
 BoneOhio | Downavg 99¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | -$8.5 | 70% 1911-827 (2738) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 49.8¢ | $515.27 | $497.39 | -$1.45 | 54% 4416-3739 (8155) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 49.8¢ | $254.09 | — | -$253.2 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 49.5¢ | $246.29 | $497.39 | +$251.75 | |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518 | Downavg 98.5¢ | $202.99 | $206 | +$3.01 | 51% 2283-2160 (4443) |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 47.3¢ | $88.35 | $67 | -$21.35 | 50% 4723-4777 (9500) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 47.3¢ | $56.1 | — | -$56.1 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 48.1¢ | $32.25 | $67 | +$34.75 | |
PL ply-pm2CTR<$100 | Upavg 52.6¢ | $30.09 | — | -$30.09 | 54% 2814-2386 (5200) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR | Upavg 44.1¢ | $127.65 | — | -$14.5 | 51% 2638-2500 (5138) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Downavg 61.6¢ | $34.55 | $25.09 | -$4.17 | 52% 4002-3711 (7713) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 58.7¢ | $29.68 | $31.16 | +$1.48 | 46% 1752-2030 (3782) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Upavg 69.6¢ | $16.06 | — | -$16.06 | 40% 1813-2746 (4559) |
 ohioismCTR<$100 | Upavg 52¢ | $13.4 | — | -$9.2 | 47% 2539-2808 (5347) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $9.8 | — | -$9.8 | 49% 2596-2668 (5264) |
 MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $6.12 | — | -$6.12 | 53% 3147-2839 (5986) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $6.93 | $7 | +$0.07 | 98% 4700-98 (4798) |
 pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Upavg 67.4¢ | $6.09 | — | -$6.09 | 34% 1285-2527 (3812) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $5.94 | $6 | +$0.06 | 50% 2955-2954 (5909) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 55¢ | $8.4 | — | -$7.05 | 44% 2501-3236 (5737) |
AS asidjasiodja<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $4.95 | $5 | +$0.05 | 65% 2926-1596 (4522) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $13.8 | $15 | +$1.2 | 66% 4119-2085 (6204) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 93¢ | $11.88 | $12.78 | +$0.9 | 62% 4812-2936 (7748) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 53¢ | $7.42 | — | -$7.42 | 48% 2616-2848 (5464) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Upavg 50¢ | $8 | — | -$8 | 46% 3434-3964 (7398) |
Invested
$4,779.73
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$48.28
Record
54%
1670-1435 (3105)
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$10.71
Record
60%
652-437 (1089)
Both legs:
BoneOhioInvested
$1,008.5
Value
$1.0K
PnL
-$8.5
Record
70%
1911-827 (2738)
Invested
$515.27
Value
$497.39
PnL
-$1.45
Record
54%
4416-3739 (8155)
Both legs:
Invested
$202.99
Value
$206
PnL
+$3.01
Record
51%
2283-2160 (4443)
Invested
$88.35
Value
$67
PnL
-$21.35
Record
50%
4723-4777 (9500)
Both legs:
Invested
$30.09
Value
—
PnL
-$30.09
Record
54%
2814-2386 (5200)
Polkadot-FrogCTRInvested
$127.65
Value
—
PnL
-$14.5
Record
51%
2638-2500 (5138)
Invested
$34.55
Value
$25.09
PnL
-$4.17
Record
52%
4002-3711 (7713)
Invested
$29.68
Value
$31.16
PnL
+$1.48
Record
46%
1752-2030 (3782)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$16.06
Value
—
PnL
-$16.06
Record
40%
1813-2746 (4559)
ohioismCTR<$100Invested
$13.4
Value
—
PnL
-$9.2
Record
47%
2539-2808 (5347)
Invested
$9.8
Value
—
PnL
-$9.8
Record
49%
2596-2668 (5264)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$6.12
Value
—
PnL
-$6.12
Record
53%
3147-2839 (5986)
Invested
$6.93
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.07
Record
98%
4700-98 (4798)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$6.09
Value
—
PnL
-$6.09
Record
34%
1285-2527 (3812)
Invested
$5.94
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
2955-2954 (5909)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$8.4
Value
—
PnL
-$7.05
Record
44%
2501-3236 (5737)
Invested
$4.95
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.05
Record
65%
2926-1596 (4522)
Invested
$13.8
Value
$15
PnL
+$1.2
Record
66%
4119-2085 (6204)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$12.78
PnL
+$0.9
Record
62%
4812-2936 (7748)
Invested
$7.42
Value
—
PnL
-$7.42
Record
48%
2616-2848 (5464)
Invested
$8
Value
—
PnL
-$8
Record
46%
3434-3964 (7398)
Chat
Market Info
Traders in this Market
0x50f7
Down — $4.8K
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
BoneOhio
Down — $1.0K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $206
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ply-pm2
CTRUp — $0
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
soswald1
Down — $25.09
rabadabadoo
Down — $31.16