Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (100%). 11 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET

11 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold Up (61%) · Up at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Up<1¢Down>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 61%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

-$15.2

Smart Money Entry

42.1¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%

Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up11 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,830

Combined PnL-$10.45

Down7 traders

Total Value$135

Total Shares144

Combined PnL-$4.75

Up — 61%Down — 39%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.19	60% 643-434 (1077)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500	$494.5	-$0.53	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Up leg	Upavg 50¢	$247	$249.47	+$1.14
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$247.5	$245.03	-$1.67
pspspsps5<$100	Downavg 98¢	$59.01	$59.64	+$0.63	34% 1279-2509 (3788)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 97.5¢	$31.05	$29.33	-$1.73	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
OhioRiskManagement<$100	Downavg 98.8¢	$14.43	$15.64	+$1.21	40% 1799-2733 (4532)
AA aaa221<$100	Downavg 97¢	$15.46	$15.22	-$0.24	60% 4351-2951 (7302)
PB PBot-5CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$12.88	$14.14	+$1.26	48% 1548-1672 (3220)
HC Hcrystallash<$100	Downavg 68.2¢	$7.5	$5.45	-$2.05	57% 5234-3877 (9111)
LI Little-big<$100	Downavg 76.5¢	$7.65	$4.95	-$2.7	51% 1171-1112 (2283)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 93¢	$4.65	$4.77	+$0.12	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.53	+$0.23	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$5.5	$0.93	-$4.57	43% 2210-2957 (5167)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100	Upavg 4.9¢	$0.88	$0.81	-$0.07	53% 3129-2827 (5956)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 6.8¢	$2.12	$0.16	-$1.96	46% 1747-2012 (3759)
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100	Upavg 4.2¢	$1.15	$0.14	-$1.01	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Upavg 4¢	$0.08	$0.09	+$0.01	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100	Upavg 1¢	$0.05	$0.08	+$0.02	36% 1528-2731 (4259)
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100	Upavg 3¢	$0.03	$0.07	+$0.04	54% 1662-1428 (3090)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 9.8¢	$4.6	$0.02	-$4.58	51% 2628-2476 (5104)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.19

Record

60%

643-434 (1077)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500

Value

$494.5

PnL

-$0.53

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Invested

$59.01

Value

$59.64

PnL

+$0.63

Record

34%

1279-2509 (3788)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$31.05

Value

$29.33

PnL

-$1.73

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

OhioRiskManagement<$100

Down

Invested

$14.43

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$1.21

Record

40%

1799-2733 (4532)

aaa221<$100

Down

Invested

$15.46

Value

$15.22

PnL

-$0.24

Record

60%

4351-2951 (7302)

PBot-5CTR<$100

Invested

$12.88

Value

$14.14

PnL

+$1.26

Record

48%

1548-1672 (3220)

Hcrystallash<$100

Down

Invested

$7.5

Value

$5.45

PnL

-$2.05

Record

57%

5234-3877 (9111)

Little-big<$100

Down

Invested

$7.65

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$2.7

Record

51%

1171-1112 (2283)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.77

PnL

+$0.12

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.23

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$0.93

PnL

-$4.57

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.81

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$2.12

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$1.96

Record

46%

1747-2012 (3759)

asdcaxzCTR<$100

Invested

$1.15

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.01

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.09

PnL

+$0.01

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

antsaslykuCTR<$100

Invested

$0.05

Value

$0.08

PnL

+$0.02

Record

36%

1528-2731 (4259)

0x50f7CTR<$100

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

1662-1428 (3090)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.58

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 18 top traders (61%)Underdog side (market favors Down 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8806.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

8906.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.