Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Down, while the market favors Up (90%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Down (42%) · Down at 11¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up90¢Down10¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Down

Consensus Traders

Down 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$14.72

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 10.5¢

-77% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidDown at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Up 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up90%

Down11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,736

Combined PnL-$5.51

Up7 traders

Total Value$311.92

Total Shares358

Combined PnL+$20.23

Down — 42%Up — 58%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Downavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$0.02	60% 643-434 (1077)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Upavg 49.9¢	$507.44	$499.1	-$0.96	54% 4385-3706 (8091)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50.2¢	$248.96	$275.33	+$26.97
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$250.96	$223.77	-$27.94
UN uninformedfloww	Upavg 77.6¢	$182.93	$194.6	+$11.67	49% 2590-2661 (5251)
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100	Downavg 20.4¢	$61.61	$68.22	+$6.61	49% 3718-3826 (7544)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Upavg 56.9¢	$55.54	$52.67	+$7.49	50% 4700-4760 (9460)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Upavg 75¢	$32.24	$25.72	-$6.52	54% 2796-2370 (5166)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Downavg 29.4¢	$22.98	$13.56	-$9.43	51% 2628-2476 (5104)
ohioism<$100	Upavg 84¢	$12.6	$13.43	+$0.83	47% 2520-2793 (5313)
RA rabadabadoo<$100	Upavg 48.1¢	$9.41	$11	+$5.85	46% 1747-2012 (3759)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Upavg 82.9¢	$8.18	$9.13	+$0.95	62% 4780-2916 (7696)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Downavg 24.5¢	$8.09	$5.77	-$2.32	52% 3978-3687 (7665)
AS asdaefef<$100	Upavg 90¢	$5.4	$5.37	-$0.03	66% 4097-2069 (6166)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Downavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.02	-$0.36	43% 2210-2957 (5167)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$0.02

Record

60%

643-434 (1077)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Invested

$507.44

Value

$499.1

PnL

-$0.96

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

Both legs:

Down$248.9650.2¢+$26.97

Up$250.9649.9¢-$27.94

uninformedfloww

Invested

$182.93

Value

$194.6

PnL

+$11.67

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$61.61

Value

$68.22

PnL

+$6.61

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

asdcaxz<$100

Invested

$55.54

Value

$52.67

PnL

+$7.49

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

ply-pm2<$100

Invested

$32.24

Value

$25.72

PnL

-$6.52

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Down

Invested

$22.98

Value

$13.56

PnL

-$9.43

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

ohioism<$100

Invested

$12.6

Value

$13.43

PnL

+$0.83

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

rabadabadoo<$100

Invested

$9.41

Value

$11

PnL

+$5.85

Record

46%

1747-2012 (3759)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Invested

$8.18

Value

$9.13

PnL

+$0.95

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

soswald1CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$8.09

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$2.32

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

asdaefef<$100

Invested

$5.4

Value

$5.37

PnL

-$0.03

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Down

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.36

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

Research grade

AvoidDown at 11%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Down

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Up 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Down wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance12.2%

10.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$718.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

818.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.