Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Down β but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET
Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
22
Down 57%
$656.91
$-1.6K
Smart Money Signal
12 of 22 top traders (55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR | Downavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | β | $-1.4K | 60% 643-434 (1077) |
BY ByteBadger92 | Upavg 50.7Β’ | $508.74 | $505 | +$1.95 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
SO soswald1CTR | Downavg 50Β’ | $150 | β | -$122.45 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 99Β’ | $63.36 | $64 | +$0.64 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 90.4Β’ | $31.35 | $34.68 | +$3.33 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Downavg 9.3Β’ | $23.36 | β | -$23.36 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 60.5Β’ | $16.94 | β | -$16.94 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 85Β’ | $12.75 | $15 | +$2.25 | 54% 2796-2370 (5166) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 79.6Β’ | $10.64 | $11.23 | +$1.79 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
![]() BoneOhio<$100 | Upavg 40Β’ | $2.8 | $7 | +$4.2 | 70% 1893-822 (2715) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 38Β’ | $2.3 | $6.05 | +$3.75 | 46% 1747-2012 (3759) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 50.2Β’ | $5.52 | $11 | +$5.48 | 57% 5234-3877 (9111) |
![]() Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Downavg 13.1Β’ | $24.6 | β | -$5.6 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 39Β’ | $0.78 | $2 | +$1.22 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 28Β’ | $1.68 | β | -$1.68 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
![]() G-Penis-Monster<$100 | Upavg 38Β’ | $0.36 | $0.94 | +$0.58 | 44% 2484-3215 (5699) |
![]() MayorMamdaniCTR<$100 | Downavg 3.8Β’ | $0.91 | β | -$0.91 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
AS asdaefefCTR<$100 | Downavg 16.2Β’ | $1.08 | β | -$1.08 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Downavg 5Β’ | $1.05 | β | -$1.05 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100 | Downavg 4Β’ | $0.4 | β | -$0.4 | 39% 821-1310 (2131) |
![]() pspspsps5CTR<$100 | Downavg 3Β’ | $0.19 | β | -$0.19 | 34% 1279-2509 (3788) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 20.5Β’ | $21.66 | β | -$21.66 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
β
PnL
$-1.4K
Record
60%
643-434 (1077)
Invested
$508.74
Value
$505
PnL
+$1.95
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Invested
$150
Value
β
PnL
-$122.45
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Invested
$63.36
Value
$64
PnL
+$0.64
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$31.35
Value
$34.68
PnL
+$3.33
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$23.36
Value
β
PnL
-$23.36
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$16.94
Value
β
PnL
-$16.94
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$12.75
Value
$15
PnL
+$2.25
Record
54%
2796-2370 (5166)
Invested
$10.64
Value
$11.23
PnL
+$1.79
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$2.8
Value
$7
PnL
+$4.2
Record
70%
1893-822 (2715)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$6.05
PnL
+$3.75
Record
46%
1747-2012 (3759)
Invested
$5.52
Value
$11
PnL
+$5.48
Record
57%
5234-3877 (9111)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$24.6
Value
β
PnL
-$5.6
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
ohioism<$100Invested
$0.78
Value
$2
PnL
+$1.22
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$1.68
Value
β
PnL
-$1.68
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
G-Penis-Monster<$100Invested
$0.36
Value
$0.94
PnL
+$0.58
Record
44%
2484-3215 (5699)
MayorMamdaniCTR<$100Invested
$0.91
Value
β
PnL
-$0.91
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
Invested
$1.08
Value
β
PnL
-$1.08
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$1.05
Value
β
PnL
-$1.05
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
Invested
$0.4
Value
β
PnL
-$0.4
Record
39%
821-1310 (2131)
pspspsps5CTR<$100Invested
$0.19
Value
β
PnL
-$0.19
Record
34%
1279-2509 (3788)
Invested
$21.66
Value
β
PnL
-$21.66
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
CTRDown β $0
ByteBadger92
Up β $505
soswald1
CTRDown β $0
hoodquant
Up β $64

OhioRiskManagement
Up β $34.68
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
CTRDown β $0
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
Up β $15
drfc4eybh7i8
Up β $11.23

BoneOhio
Up β $7