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Consensus Lost βœ—

Smart money consensus was Down β€” but Up won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET

Resolved Up. 55% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

πŸ’€

Lost

Consensus Traders

22

Down 57%

Total Value

$656.91

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Signal

Down

12 of 22 top traders (55%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up100%
Down0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Down12 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,965
Combined PnL$-1.6K
Up10 traders
Total Value$656.91
Total Shares657
Combined PnL+$25.2
Down β€” 55%Up β€” 45%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Down

Invested

$1,500

Value

β€”

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

60%

643-434 (1077)

BY
ByteBadger92
Up

Invested

$508.74

Value

$505

PnL

+$1.95

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

SO
soswald1CTR
Down

Invested

$150

Value

β€”

PnL

-$122.45

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

HO
hoodquant<$100
Up

Invested

$63.36

Value

$64

PnL

+$0.64

Record

98%

4661-98 (4759)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Up

Invested

$31.35

Value

$34.68

PnL

+$3.33

Record

40%

1799-2733 (4532)

0X
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$23.36

Value

β€”

PnL

-$23.36

Record

49%

3718-3826 (7544)

0X
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$16.94

Value

β€”

PnL

-$16.94

Record

51%

2264-2146 (4410)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Up

Invested

$12.75

Value

$15

PnL

+$2.25

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Up

Invested

$10.64

Value

$11.23

PnL

+$1.79

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

BoneOhio<$100
Up

Invested

$2.8

Value

$7

PnL

+$4.2

Record

70%

1893-822 (2715)

RA
rabadabadoo<$100
Up

Invested

$2.3

Value

$6.05

PnL

+$3.75

Record

46%

1747-2012 (3759)

HC
Hcrystallash<$100
Up

Invested

$5.52

Value

$11

PnL

+$5.48

Record

57%

5234-3877 (9111)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$24.6

Value

β€”

PnL

-$5.6

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

ohioism<$100
Up

Invested

$0.78

Value

$2

PnL

+$1.22

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

0X
0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.68

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.68

Record

43%

2210-2957 (5167)

G-Penis-Monster<$100
Up

Invested

$0.36

Value

$0.94

PnL

+$0.58

Record

44%

2484-3215 (5699)

MayorMamdaniCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.91

Value

β€”

PnL

-$0.91

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

AS
asdaefefCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.08

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.08

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

0X
0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$1.05

Value

β€”

PnL

-$1.05

Record

48%

2593-2832 (5425)

FL
flippingsharksCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.4

Value

β€”

PnL

-$0.4

Record

39%

821-1310 (2131)

pspspsps5CTR<$100
Down

Invested

$0.19

Value

β€”

PnL

-$0.19

Record

34%

1279-2509 (3788)

AS
asdcaxzCTR<$100
Down

Invested

$21.66

Value

β€”

PnL

-$21.66

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)