Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Up — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET
Resolved Up. 59% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Up 57%
3 arb excluded
$2.6K
-$188.75
Smart Money Signal
13 of 22 top traders (59%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%22 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | +$1.24 | 60% 643-434 (1077) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $693.44 | $1.4K | +$716.9 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $704.48 | — | -$715.66 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Upavg 50.3¢ | $506.45 | $500.58 | +$6.45 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50.3¢ | $251.82 | $500.58 | +$253.15 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50¢ | $245 | — | -$246.7 | |
AS asdcaxzARB<$100 | Upavg 66.1¢ | $238.81 | $261.38 | +$22.57 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 66.1¢ | $172.76 | $261.38 | +$88.62 | |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 37.7¢ | $66.05 | — | -$66.05 | |
 Polkadot-Frog<$100 | Upavg 59.3¢ | $74.58 | $64.96 | -$9.62 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9¢ | $63.99 | $64.71 | +$0.72 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609<$100 | Upavg 66.9¢ | $65.98 | $60.79 | -$5.19 | 49% 3718-3826 (7544) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 44.9¢ | $22.46 | $50 | +$27.54 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 55.6¢ | $44.29 | $52.99 | +$8.71 | 54% 2796-2370 (5166) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 77.3¢ | $55 | $52.87 | -$2.13 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Upavg 70.5¢ | $46 | $49 | +$3 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 51.2¢ | $98.15 | — | -$98.15 | 49% 2590-2661 (5251) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 95.3¢ | $38.74 | $37.12 | -$1.62 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100 | Downavg 39.4¢ | $41.77 | — | -$33.24 | 46% 1747-2012 (3759) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 39¢ | $14.6 | $30 | +$15.4 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 51¢ | $19.6 | — | -$19.6 | 44% 2484-3215 (5699) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 96¢ | $14.11 | $13 | -$1.11 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8CTR<$100 | Downavg 45.7¢ | $27.45 | — | -$19.86 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
DV dvasdkasodkCTR<$100 | Downavg 23.2¢ | $4.65 | — | -$4.65 | 50% 2938-2929 (5867) |
 ohioism<$100 | Upavg 49¢ | $2.45 | $5 | +$2.55 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Upavg 51¢ | $2.55 | $5 | +$2.45 | 57% 5234-3877 (9111) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Downavg 28¢ | $1.4 | — | -$1.4 | 43% 2210-2957 (5167) |
 OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $1.6 | — | -$1.6 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
AS asidjasiodjaCTR<$100 | Downavg 29¢ | $1.45 | — | -$1.45 | 65% 2910-1583 (4493) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 71¢ | $0.49 | $0.69 | +$0.2 | 60% 4351-2951 (7302) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Downavg 32¢ | $49.69 | — | -$49.69 | 49% 223-232 (455) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$1.24
Record
60%
643-434 (1077)
Both legs:
Invested
$506.45
Value
$500.58
PnL
+$6.45
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.81
Value
$261.38
PnL
+$22.57
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Both legs:
Polkadot-Frog<$100Invested
$74.58
Value
$64.96
PnL
-$9.62
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Invested
$63.99
Value
$64.71
PnL
+$0.72
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$65.98
Value
$60.79
PnL
-$5.19
Record
49%
3718-3826 (7544)
Invested
$22.46
Value
$50
PnL
+$27.54
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$44.29
Value
$52.99
PnL
+$8.71
Record
54%
2796-2370 (5166)
Invested
$55
Value
$52.87
PnL
-$2.13
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
Invested
$46
Value
$49
PnL
+$3
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$98.15
Value
—
PnL
-$98.15
Record
49%
2590-2661 (5251)
Invested
$38.74
Value
$37.12
PnL
-$1.62
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$41.77
Value
—
PnL
-$33.24
Record
46%
1747-2012 (3759)
Invested
$14.6
Value
$30
PnL
+$15.4
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$19.6
Value
—
PnL
-$19.6
Record
44%
2484-3215 (5699)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$14.11
Value
$13
PnL
-$1.11
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
Invested
$27.45
Value
—
PnL
-$19.86
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
Invested
$4.65
Value
—
PnL
-$4.65
Record
50%
2938-2929 (5867)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.45
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.55
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
Invested
$2.55
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.45
Record
57%
5234-3877 (9111)
Invested
$1.4
Value
—
PnL
-$1.4
Record
43%
2210-2957 (5167)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100Invested
$1.6
Value
—
PnL
-$1.6
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$1.45
Value
—
PnL
-$1.45
Record
65%
2910-1583 (4493)
Invested
$0.49
Value
$0.69
PnL
+$0.2
Record
60%
4351-2951 (7302)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.69
Value
—
PnL
-$49.69
Record
49%
223-232 (455)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage — excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
asdcaxz
ARBArbitrage — excluded
Polkadot-Frog
Up — $64.96
hoodquant
Up — $64.71
0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609
Up — $60.79
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025
Up — $50
ply-pm2
Up — $52.99
soswald1
Up — $52.87
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Up — $49