Consensus Won β
Smart money consensus was Up β and it was correct. Winning outcome: Up

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET
Resolved Up. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was right.
π
Won
17
Up 71%
3 arb excluded
$2.1K
-$82.42
Smart Money Signal
12 of 17 top traders (71%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bARB<$100 | Downavg 50Β’ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$6.49 | 60% 643-434 (1077) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 50Β’ | $695.51 | $1.4K | +$677.96 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50Β’ | $697.21 | β | -$684.46 | |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.5Β’ | $513.03 | $491.72 | -$2.9 | 54% 4385-3706 (8091) |
| β Up leg | Upavg 49.9Β’ | $245.35 | $491.72 | +$248.58 | |
| β Down leg | Downavg 50.5Β’ | $249.71 | β | -$251.48 | |
![]() Polkadot-FrogARB<$100 | Downavg 33.3Β’ | $113.89 | $30 | +$10.33 | 51% 2628-2476 (5104) |
| β Down leg | Downavg 33.3Β’ | $37.94 | β | -$26.97 | |
| β Up leg | Upavg 32.8Β’ | $9.85 | $30 | +$37.3 | |
HO hoodquant<$100 | Upavg 98.9Β’ | $39.55 | $40 | +$0.45 | 98% 4661-98 (4759) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100 | Downavg 77.5Β’ | $46.3 | β | -$46.3 | 51% 2264-2146 (4410) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Upavg 60.5Β’ | $31.6 | $34.65 | +$3.05 | 54% 2796-2370 (5166) |
AS asdcaxzCTR<$100 | Downavg 71.2Β’ | $57.89 | β | -$57.89 | 50% 4700-4760 (9460) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Upavg 65.9Β’ | $17.9 | $18.89 | +$2.84 | 46% 1747-2012 (3759) |
0X 0x50f7CTR<$100 | Downavg 1.1Β’ | $2.6 | β | -$2.6 | 54% 1662-1428 (3090) |
![]() MayorMamdani<$100 | Upavg 76.2Β’ | $13.71 | $18 | +$4.29 | 53% 3129-2827 (5956) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Upavg 89.9Β’ | $18.29 | $17 | -$1.29 | 62% 4780-2916 (7696) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Upavg 83.6Β’ | $17.22 | $17 | -$0.22 | 66% 4097-2069 (6166) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Upavg 50.3Β’ | $13.73 | $23 | +$9.27 | 48% 2621-2880 (5501) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100 | Upavg 39.1Β’ | $9 | $23 | +$14 | 48% 2593-2832 (5425) |
UN uninformedflowwCTR<$100 | Downavg 58.8Β’ | $17.65 | β | -$17.65 | 49% 2590-2661 (5251) |
SO soswald1<$100 | Upavg 46.9Β’ | $3.6 | $7.67 | +$4.07 | 52% 3978-3687 (7665) |
![]() G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Downavg 43.9Β’ | $2.93 | β | -$2.93 | 44% 2484-3215 (5699) |
![]() ohioism<$100 | Upavg 47Β’ | $2.35 | $5 | +$2.65 | 47% 2520-2793 (5313) |
![]() OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Upavg 23Β’ | $1.15 | $5 | +$3.85 | 40% 1799-2733 (4532) |
AA aaa221<$100 | Upavg 45Β’ | $1.64 | $3.64 | +$2 | 60% 4351-2951 (7302) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$6.49
Record
60%
643-434 (1077)
Both legs:
Invested
$513.03
Value
$491.72
PnL
-$2.9
Record
54%
4385-3706 (8091)
Both legs:
Polkadot-FrogARB<$100Invested
$113.89
Value
$30
PnL
+$10.33
Record
51%
2628-2476 (5104)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.55
Value
$40
PnL
+$0.45
Record
98%
4661-98 (4759)
Invested
$46.3
Value
β
PnL
-$46.3
Record
51%
2264-2146 (4410)
Invested
$31.6
Value
$34.65
PnL
+$3.05
Record
54%
2796-2370 (5166)
Invested
$57.89
Value
β
PnL
-$57.89
Record
50%
4700-4760 (9460)
Invested
$17.9
Value
$18.89
PnL
+$2.84
Record
46%
1747-2012 (3759)
Invested
$2.6
Value
β
PnL
-$2.6
Record
54%
1662-1428 (3090)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$13.71
Value
$18
PnL
+$4.29
Record
53%
3129-2827 (5956)
Invested
$18.29
Value
$17
PnL
-$1.29
Record
62%
4780-2916 (7696)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$17
PnL
-$0.22
Record
66%
4097-2069 (6166)
Invested
$13.73
Value
$23
PnL
+$9.27
Record
48%
2621-2880 (5501)
Invested
$9
Value
$23
PnL
+$14
Record
48%
2593-2832 (5425)
Invested
$17.65
Value
β
PnL
-$17.65
Record
49%
2590-2661 (5251)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$7.67
PnL
+$4.07
Record
52%
3978-3687 (7665)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$2.93
Value
β
PnL
-$2.93
Record
44%
2484-3215 (5699)
ohioism<$100Invested
$2.35
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.65
Record
47%
2520-2793 (5313)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$1.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$3.85
Record
40%
1799-2733 (4532)
Invested
$1.64
Value
$3.64
PnL
+$2
Record
60%
4351-2951 (7302)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
ARBArbitrage β excluded
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage β excluded

Polkadot-Frog
ARBArbitrage β excluded
hoodquant
Up β $40
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
CTRDown β $0
ply-pm2
Up β $34.65
asdcaxz
CTRDown β $0
rabadabadoo
Up β $18.89
0x50f7
CTRDown β $0

MayorMamdani
Up β $18