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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Up — but Down won instead.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET

Resolved Down. 24% of the top Polymarket traders held Up. The smart money was wrong.

View on Polymarket
RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

17

Up 24%

Total Value

$817.24

Combined PnL

$-1.4K

Smart Money Signal

Up

4 of 17 top traders (24%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Up0%
Down100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up4 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,504
Combined PnL$-1.4K
Down13 traders
Total Value$817.24
Total Shares817
Combined PnL+$24.44
Up — 24%Down — 76%
0X
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR
Up

Invested

$1,500

Value

—

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

60%

643-434 (1077)

BY
ByteBadger92
Down

Invested

$522.45

Value

$510

PnL

-$3.1

Record

54%

4385-3706 (8091)

AS
asdcaxz
Down

Invested

$80.44

Value

$104.89

PnL

+$25.35

Record

50%

4700-4760 (9460)

Polkadot-Frog<$100
Down

Invested

$43.12

Value

$30

PnL

-$13.12

Record

51%

2628-2476 (5104)

PL
ply-pm2<$100
Down

Invested

$38

Value

$35.64

PnL

-$2.36

Record

54%

2796-2370 (5166)

OhioRiskManagement<$100
Down

Invested

$32.97

Value

$34.71

PnL

+$1.74

Record

40%

1799-2733 (4532)

pspspsps5<$100
Down

Invested

$27.95

Value

$32.49

PnL

+$4.54

Record

34%

1279-2509 (3788)

SO
soswald1<$100
Down

Invested

$17.37

Value

$23.34

PnL

+$5.97

Record

52%

3978-3687 (7665)

RA
rabadabadoo<$100
Down

Invested

$10.74

Value

$11.97

PnL

+$1.23

Record

46%

1747-2012 (3759)

AS
asdaefef<$100
Down

Invested

$9.9

Value

$10.15

PnL

+$0.25

Record

66%

4097-2069 (6166)

MayorMamdani<$100
Down

Invested

$6.16

Value

$7

PnL

+$0.84

Record

53%

3129-2827 (5956)

BoneOhio<$100
Down

Invested

$5.25

Value

$7

PnL

+$1.75

Record

70%

1893-822 (2715)

AS
asidjasiodja<$100
Down

Invested

$4.9

Value

$5.05

PnL

+$0.15

Record

65%

2910-1583 (4493)

DR
drfc4eybh7i8<$100
Down

Invested

$9.1

Value

$5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

62%

4780-2916 (7696)

ohioismCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$1.75

Value

—

PnL

-$1.75

Record

47%

2520-2793 (5313)

UN
uninformedflowwCTR<$100
Up

Invested

$14.67

Value

—

PnL

-$14.67

Record

49%

2590-2661 (5251)

0X
0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025CTR<$100
Up

Invested

$8.4

Value

—

PnL

-$8.4

Record

48%

2621-2880 (5501)

Chat

Market Info

Condition ID
0x76b63cd9...56c911
Slug
eth-updown-5m-1794779700

Traders in this Market

0X

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b

CTR

Up — $0

$-1.4K
BY

ByteBadger92

Down — $510

-$3.1
AS

asdcaxz

Down — $104.89

+$25.35

Polkadot-Frog

Down — $30

-$13.12
PL

ply-pm2

Down — $35.64

-$2.36

OhioRiskManagement

Down — $34.71

+$1.74

pspspsps5

Down — $32.49

+$4.54
SO

soswald1

Down — $23.34

+$5.97
RA

rabadabadoo

Down — $11.97

+$1.23
AS

asdaefef

Down — $10.15

+$0.25
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