Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Up, while the market favors Down (91%). 9 of 20 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET

9 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Up (45%) · Up at 9.5¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Up10¢Down90¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

Up 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

-$4.08

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 9.5¢

-80% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidUp at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Up10%

Down91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Up9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,711

Combined PnL+$1.6

Down11 traders

Total Value$188.57

Total Shares263

Combined PnL-$5.68

Up — 45%Down — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR	Upavg 50¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$5.23	60% 638-427 (1065)
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100	Downavg 50¢	$500.4	$496.86	+$0.36	54% 4350-3681 (8031)
└ Down leg	Downavg 50¢	$250	$317.5	+$67.5
└ Up leg	Upavg 49.9¢	$245.41	$179.36	-$67.14
UN uninformedfloww<$100	Downavg 77.6¢	$94.89	$73.42	-$21.47	49% 2572-2644 (5216)
HC HcrystallashCTR<$100	Upavg 57¢	$41.63	$36.86	-$4.76	57% 5226-3866 (9092)
ohioism<$100	Downavg 49.9¢	$20.44	$32.6	+$12.16	47% 2506-2778 (5284)
AS asdcaxz<$100	Downavg 65¢	$33.47	$31.64	-$1.83	50% 4682-4738 (9420)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100	Upavg 24.6¢	$14.64	$21.71	+$7.07	51% 2609-2462 (5071)
RA rabadabadooCTR<$100	Upavg 41.4¢	$13.43	$14.37	+$0.94	46% 1737-1999 (3736)
SO soswald1CTR<$100	Upavg 39¢	$14.1	$13.33	-$0.77	52% 3952-3665 (7617)
G-Penis-Monster<$100	Downavg 36.7¢	$9.15	$12.35	+$3.2	44% 2472-3195 (5667)
BoneOhio<$100	Downavg 91¢	$11.65	$11.52	-$0.13	70% 1877-817 (2694)
AS asdaefef<$100	Downavg 56.8¢	$6.35	$8.66	+$2.31	66% 4070-2058 (6128)
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100	Downavg 41¢	$3.04	$5.45	+$2.41	62% 4748-2897 (7645)
PL ply-pm2<$100	Downavg 58¢	$5.8	$4.95	-$0.85	54% 2777-2356 (5133)
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100	Upavg 47¢	$2.82	$3.03	+$0.21	43% 2188-2930 (5118)
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100	Downavg 31¢	$1.86	$2.97	+$1.11	48% 2582-2816 (5398)
FL flippingsharksCTR<$100	Upavg 24.7¢	$5.6	$2.61	-$2.99	38% 813-1304 (2117)
DV dvasdkasodk<$100	Downavg 75¢	$3.8	$2.51	-$1.29	50% 2915-2911 (5826)
AS asidjasiodja<$100	Downavg 75¢	$3.8	$2.51	-$1.29	65% 2887-1573 (4460)
OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100	Upavg 20¢	$5.15	$1.93	-$3.22	40% 1785-2715 (4500)
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100	Upavg 59¢	$0.77	$0.66	-$0.11	51% 2246-2136 (4382)

0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723bCTR

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$5.23

Record

60%

638-427 (1065)

ByteBadger92ARB<$100

Down

Invested

$500.4

Value

$496.86

PnL

+$0.36

Record

54%

4350-3681 (8031)

Both legs:

Down$25050¢+$67.5

Up$245.4149.9¢-$67.14

uninformedfloww<$100

Down

Invested

$94.89

Value

$73.42

PnL

-$21.47

Record

49%

2572-2644 (5216)

HcrystallashCTR<$100

Invested

$41.63

Value

$36.86

PnL

-$4.76

Record

57%

5226-3866 (9092)

ohioism<$100

Down

Invested

$20.44

Value

$32.6

PnL

+$12.16

Record

47%

2506-2778 (5284)

asdcaxz<$100

Down

Invested

$33.47

Value

$31.64

PnL

-$1.83

Record

50%

4682-4738 (9420)

Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100

Invested

$14.64

Value

$21.71

PnL

+$7.07

Record

51%

2609-2462 (5071)

rabadabadooCTR<$100

Invested

$13.43

Value

$14.37

PnL

+$0.94

Record

46%

1737-1999 (3736)

soswald1CTR<$100

Invested

$14.1

Value

$13.33

PnL

-$0.77

Record

52%

3952-3665 (7617)

G-Penis-Monster<$100

Down

Invested

$9.15

Value

$12.35

PnL

+$3.2

Record

44%

2472-3195 (5667)

BoneOhio<$100

Down

Invested

$11.65

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.13

Record

70%

1877-817 (2694)

asdaefef<$100

Down

Invested

$6.35

Value

$8.66

PnL

+$2.31

Record

66%

4070-2058 (6128)

drfc4eybh7i8<$100

Down

Invested

$3.04

Value

$5.45

PnL

+$2.41

Record

62%

4748-2897 (7645)

ply-pm2<$100

Down

Invested

$5.8

Value

$4.95

PnL

-$0.85

Record

54%

2777-2356 (5133)

0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100

Invested

$2.82

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.21

Record

43%

2188-2930 (5118)

0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530<$100

Down

Invested

$1.86

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$1.11

Record

48%

2582-2816 (5398)

flippingsharksCTR<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$2.61

PnL

-$2.99

Record

38%

813-1304 (2117)

dvasdkasodk<$100

Down

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$1.29

Record

50%

2915-2911 (5826)

asidjasiodja<$100

Down

Invested

$3.8

Value

$2.51

PnL

-$1.29

Record

65%

2887-1573 (4460)

OhioRiskManagementCTR<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$3.22

Record

40%

1785-2715 (4500)

0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518CTR<$100

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.66

PnL

-$0.11

Record

51%

2246-2136 (4382)

Research grade

AvoidUp at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 20 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Down 91%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%19 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Up wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.2%

9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$796.23

Max Loss

-$100.00

896.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.