Consensus Won ✓
Smart money consensus was Down — and it was correct. Winning outcome: Down
Ethereum Up or Down - November 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
Resolved Down. 68% of the top Polymarket traders held Down. The smart money was right.
🏆
Won
22
Down 68%
2 arb excluded
$2.8K
-$72.17
Smart Money Signal
15 of 22 top traders (68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b | Downavg 50¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | +$10.21 | 60% 638-427 (1065) |
BY ByteBadger92ARB<$100 | Downavg 50.3¢ | $506.5 | $500.01 | +$2.43 | 54% 4350-3681 (8031) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 50.3¢ | $251.47 | $500.01 | +$251.4 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 50¢ | $248.53 | — | -$248.97 | |
UN uninformedflowwARB<$100 | Downavg 80.8¢ | $290.18 | $258.61 | -$31.57 | 49% 2572-2644 (5216) |
| └ Down leg | Downavg 80.8¢ | $208.9 | $258.61 | +$49.71 | |
| └ Up leg | Upavg 15.9¢ | $81.28 | — | -$81.28 | |
HO hoodquant | Downavg 98.5¢ | $161.46 | $164 | +$2.54 | 98% 4630-97 (4727) |
AS asdcaxz | Downavg 76.6¢ | $135.08 | $150 | +$14.92 | 50% 4682-4738 (9420) |
SO soswald1 | Downavg 52.4¢ | $158.8 | $150 | +$5.25 | 52% 3952-3665 (7617) |
 Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100 | Upavg 45.1¢ | $47.47 | — | -$47.47 | 51% 2609-2462 (5071) |
PL ply-pm2<$100 | Downavg 79.8¢ | $32.73 | $31.95 | -$0.78 | 54% 2777-2356 (5133) |
0X 0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518<$100 | Downavg 66.1¢ | $37.01 | $56 | +$18.99 | 51% 2246-2136 (4382) |
DR drfc4eybh7i8<$100 | Downavg 90.9¢ | $25.55 | $26 | +$0.05 | 62% 4748-2897 (7645) |
0X 0x424eb20Fcd25113e3b98f42522A54580350b263b-1774330621025<$100 | Downavg 66¢ | $24.9 | $20 | -$4.9 | 48% 2606-2865 (5471) |
 OhioRiskManagement<$100 | Downavg 92¢ | $20.41 | $17 | -$3.41 | 40% 1785-2715 (4500) |
AS asdaefef<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $13.66 | $12 | -$1.66 | 66% 4070-2058 (6128) |
 BoneOhio<$100 | Downavg 99¢ | $11.44 | $11.56 | +$0.12 | 70% 1877-817 (2694) |
0X 0xba679aB701E6162CC2C932b8B498124F47394727-1774328661530CTR<$100 | Upavg 45¢ | $11.25 | — | -$11.25 | 48% 2582-2816 (5398) |
0X 0xb55fa1296E6ec55D0cE53d93B9237389f11764d4-1777575277609CTR<$100 | Upavg 17.9¢ | $8.32 | — | -$8.32 | 49% 3684-3801 (7485) |
DV dvasdkasodk<$100 | Downavg 95¢ | $6.65 | $7 | +$0.35 | 50% 2915-2911 (5826) |
RA rabadabadoo<$100 | Downavg 61¢ | $4.15 | $5 | +$0.85 | 46% 1737-1999 (3736) |
 MayorMamdani<$100 | Downavg 86¢ | $5.16 | $6 | +$0.84 | 53% 3113-2811 (5924) |
HC Hcrystallash<$100 | Downavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $10 | +$5.3 | 57% 5226-3866 (9092) |
0X 0x0dbd0e1d5999a401263dc26cbf1597f2be0cfcd5-1793622023710CTR<$100 | Upavg 26¢ | $3.12 | — | -$3.12 | 43% 2188-2930 (5118) |
 wowitsamazingCTR<$100 | Upavg 34.2¢ | $49.83 | — | -$49.83 | 49% 222-230 (452) |
 G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100 | Upavg 6¢ | $0.79 | — | -$0.79 | 44% 2472-3195 (5667) |
AN antsaslykuCTR<$100 | Upavg 1¢ | $0.05 | — | -$0.05 | 36% 1518-2714 (4232) |
Invested
$1,500
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$10.21
Record
60%
638-427 (1065)
Invested
$506.5
Value
$500.01
PnL
+$2.43
Record
54%
4350-3681 (8031)
Both legs:
Invested
$290.18
Value
$258.61
PnL
-$31.57
Record
49%
2572-2644 (5216)
Both legs:
Invested
$161.46
Value
$164
PnL
+$2.54
Record
98%
4630-97 (4727)
Invested
$135.08
Value
$150
PnL
+$14.92
Record
50%
4682-4738 (9420)
Invested
$158.8
Value
$150
PnL
+$5.25
Record
52%
3952-3665 (7617)
Polkadot-FrogCTR<$100Invested
$47.47
Value
—
PnL
-$47.47
Record
51%
2609-2462 (5071)
Invested
$32.73
Value
$31.95
PnL
-$0.78
Record
54%
2777-2356 (5133)
Invested
$37.01
Value
$56
PnL
+$18.99
Record
51%
2246-2136 (4382)
Invested
$25.55
Value
$26
PnL
+$0.05
Record
62%
4748-2897 (7645)
Invested
$24.9
Value
$20
PnL
-$4.9
Record
48%
2606-2865 (5471)
OhioRiskManagement<$100Invested
$20.41
Value
$17
PnL
-$3.41
Record
40%
1785-2715 (4500)
Invested
$13.66
Value
$12
PnL
-$1.66
Record
66%
4070-2058 (6128)
BoneOhio<$100Invested
$11.44
Value
$11.56
PnL
+$0.12
Record
70%
1877-817 (2694)
Invested
$11.25
Value
—
PnL
-$11.25
Record
48%
2582-2816 (5398)
Invested
$8.32
Value
—
PnL
-$8.32
Record
49%
3684-3801 (7485)
Invested
$6.65
Value
$7
PnL
+$0.35
Record
50%
2915-2911 (5826)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
46%
1737-1999 (3736)
MayorMamdani<$100Invested
$5.16
Value
$6
PnL
+$0.84
Record
53%
3113-2811 (5924)
Invested
$4.7
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.3
Record
57%
5226-3866 (9092)
Invested
$3.12
Value
—
PnL
-$3.12
Record
43%
2188-2930 (5118)
wowitsamazingCTR<$100Invested
$49.83
Value
—
PnL
-$49.83
Record
49%
222-230 (452)
G-Penis-MonsterCTR<$100Invested
$0.79
Value
—
PnL
-$0.79
Record
44%
2472-3195 (5667)
Invested
$0.05
Value
—
PnL
-$0.05
Record
36%
1518-2714 (4232)
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Market Info
Traders in this Market
0xf074dc84e438e22488da4e078fad1be62ede723b
Down — $1.3K
ByteBadger92
ARBArbitrage — excluded
uninformedfloww
ARBArbitrage — excluded
hoodquant
Down — $164
asdcaxz
Down — $150
soswald1
Down — $150
Polkadot-Frog
CTRUp — $0
ply-pm2
Down — $31.95
0x502b532F55778c0985846Dc53a9bc71eB4F33b15-1761320484518
Down — $56
drfc4eybh7i8
Down — $26